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It's not possible to invest over long periods without making some bad investments. But really bad investments should be rare. So take a moment to sympathize with the long term shareholders of Peoplein Limited (ASX:PPE), who have seen the share price tank a massive 81% over a three year period. That'd be enough to cause even the strongest minds some disquiet. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 45% in a year. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
See our latest analysis for Peoplein
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Peoplein saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 39% per year, over the last three years. This change in EPS is reasonably close to the 42% average annual decrease in the share price. So it seems like sentiment towards the stock hasn't changed all that much over time. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Peoplein's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Peoplein's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Dividends have been really beneficial for Peoplein shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 78%, over the last 3 years, isn't as bad as the share price return.
A Different Perspective
Peoplein shareholders are down 43% for the year, but the market itself is up 23%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 11% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Peoplein (at least 1 which is a bit concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.