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If you love investing in stocks you're bound to buy some losers. But long term CONMED Corporation (NYSE:CNMD) shareholders have had a particularly rough ride in the last three year. Sadly for them, the share price is down 61% in that time. And over the last year the share price fell 27%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 15% in the last 90 days. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 6.0% in the same period.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, CONMED actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 26% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.
Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
The modest 1.4% dividend yield is unlikely to be guiding the market view of the stock. We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 9.7% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. It's probably worth investigating CONMED further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. If you are thinking of buying or selling CONMED stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 7.2% in the last year, CONMED shareholders lost 26% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 4% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand CONMED better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for CONMED (1 is significant) that you should be aware of.