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If you love investing in stocks you're bound to buy some losers. But the last three years have been particularly tough on longer term Baby Bunting Group Limited (ASX:BBN) shareholders. Unfortunately, they have held through a 71% decline in the share price in that time. Unfortunately the share price momentum is still quite negative, with prices down 15% in thirty days.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
See our latest analysis for Baby Bunting Group
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Baby Bunting Group saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 35% per year, over the last three years. So do you think it's a coincidence that the share price has dropped 34% per year, a very similar rate to the EPS? We don't. So it seems like sentiment towards the stock hasn't changed all that much over time. In this case, it seems that the EPS is guiding the share price.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Baby Bunting Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We've already covered Baby Bunting Group's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for Baby Bunting Group shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 68%, over the last 3 years, isn't as bad as the share price return.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 22% in the last year, Baby Bunting Group shareholders lost 9.0%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 7% doled out over the last five years. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Baby Bunting Group that you should be aware of before investing here.