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Ambarella, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMBA) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 27% in the last quarter. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. In fact, the share price is down 45% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.
So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
See our latest analysis for Ambarella
Given that Ambarella didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
In the last three years Ambarella saw its revenue shrink by 15% per year. That's definitely a weaker result than most pre-profit companies report. With revenue in decline, the share price decline of 13% per year is hardly undeserved. The key question now is whether the company has the capacity to fund itself to profitability, without more cash. The company will need to return to revenue growth as quickly as possible, if it wants to see some enthusiasm from investors.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
Ambarella is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Ambarella has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 37% in the last twelve months. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 1.1%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Ambarella you should be aware of.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.