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As every investor would know, not every swing hits the sweet spot. But really bad investments should be rare. So consider, for a moment, the misfortune of Alfen N.V. (AMS:ALFEN) investors who have held the stock for three years as it declined a whopping 88%. That might cause some serious doubts about the merits of the initial decision to buy the stock, to put it mildly. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 60% in the last year. Furthermore, it's down 29% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.
It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.
See our latest analysis for Alfen
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During the three years that the share price fell, Alfen's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 17% each year. This reduction in EPS is slower than the 50% annual reduction in the share price. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Alfen's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 25% in the last year, Alfen shareholders lost 60%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 3% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Alfen has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.