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Statistically speaking, long term investing is a profitable endeavour. But that doesn't mean long term investors can avoid big losses. To wit, the NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NYSE:NXDT) share price managed to fall 67% over five long years. That is extremely sub-optimal, to say the least. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 11% in the last 90 days.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
View our latest analysis for NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust
Given that NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
Over five years, NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust grew its revenue at 7.7% per year. That's a pretty good rate for a long time period. The share price return isn't so respectable with an annual loss of 11% over the period. It seems probably that the business has failed to live up to initial expectations. A pessimistic market can create opportunities.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust, it has a TSR of -53% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
Investors in NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust had a tough year, with a total loss of 10% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 17%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 9% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.