S&P Global Inc. SPGI is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2025 results on April 29, before market open.
SPGI has a decent earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the past trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 8.9%.
S&P Global Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
S&P Global Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | S&P Global Inc. Quote
S&P Global’s Q1 Expectations
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.7 billion, indicating a 6.1% rise from the year-ago quarter’s actual. Growth across segments is anticipated to have improved the top line.
Our estimate for Market Intelligence revenues for the first quarter of 2025 is pegged at $1.2 billion, suggesting a 5.4% year-over-year rise. We expect strong demand for Capital IQ Pro and rising annualized contract value to have aided the segment’s revenues. Furthermore, strong demand for pricing and reference data, mainly in loan and credit default swap asset classes, is anticipated to have fueled Data & Advisory Solutions’ growth.
Enterprise Solutions is likely to have experienced growth on the back of ClearPar, Notice Manager and increasing renewals for enterprise data management software. We also anticipate strong renewals and new sales to have boosted the Credit and Risk Solutions. All in all, the Market Intelligence segment is expected to have witnessed growth, facilitated by the improvement across all its business lines.
The estimate for Ratings’ revenues is pegged at $1.1 billion, implying 4.3% growth from the year-ago quarter’s actual. Continued strength in collateralized loan obligations and refinancing activities driving issuance are expected to have driven this segment’s revenues.
Across its business lines, we expect transaction revenues to have surged on the back of strong demands for bond and bank loan, and non-transaction revenues to have grown from an increase in annual and program fees, and a rise in new rating mandates.
We expect Commodity Insights' revenues to be $604.5 million, suggesting 8.1% growth on a year-over-year basis. We anticipate higher demand for crude and refined product suites, energy transition offerings, and strong trading volumes across commodity sectors in global trading services to have driven this segment.
Our estimate for Mobility revenues hints at 7.5% growth from the year-ago quarter’s actual to $414.9 million. CARFAX product suite and strong demand for insurance-related products are expected to have contributed the most toward this segment’s revenue growth.
We project Indices revenues of 424.1 million, indicating a 9.6% year-over-year rise. This segment is expected to have experienced sufficient growth on the back of rising asset-linked fees benefiting from higher assets under management and increasing Data & Custom Subscriptions.
We expect an adjusted EBITDA of $2.2 billion for the quarter, suggesting an 8.2% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. The adjusted EBITDA margin is anticipated to be 59.1%, indicating growth from the year-ago quarter’s 58%.
The consensus estimate for earnings per share is pegged at $4.22, suggesting a 5.2% rise on a year-over-year basis. The bottom line is expected to have improved on the back of strong margins, facilitated by robust top-line growth and effective cost management.
What Our Model Predicts About SPGI
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for S&P Global this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
SPGI has an Earnings ESP of -0.04% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks that, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around.
Corpay, Inc. CPAY: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $1 billion, indicating an 8.5% increase from the year-ago quarter’s actual. For earnings, the consensus mark is pegged at $4.51 per share, suggesting 10% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. CPAY surpassed the consensus estimate in the past four quarters, with an average beat of 0.6%.
Corpay has an Earnings ESP of +2.16% and a Zacks Rank of 3. It is scheduled to declare its first-quarter 2025 results on May 6. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
Thomson Reuters TRI: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s first-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $1.9 billion, implying year-over-year growth of 1.9%. For earnings, the consensus mark is pegged at $1.06 per share, indicating a 4.5% decrease from the year-ago quarter’s actual. The company beat the consensus estimate in the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 8%.
TRI has an Earnings ESP of +0.47% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is scheduled to declare its first-quarter 2025 results on May 1.
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