WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump in recent days has dismissed fears of a recession and brushed aside the stock market sell-off, going so far as to say, “You can’t really watch the stock market." That's a new message from a leader who has frequently pointed to the market's ups and downs as a reflection of himself and his activities, even when he was not in power.
Over the last year, while President Joe Biden was in office, Trump took credit for stock market rallies as a vote of confidence in his electoral prospects. When the market dipped, he blamed Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. And he predicted that if Democrats won the 2024 presidential election, the stock market would have crashed.
President Donald Trump arrives to speak at the Business Roundtable quarterly meeting in Washington, Tuesday, March 11, 2025, as Business Roundtable Chair and Cisco Chairman and CEO Chuck Robbins watches. (Pool via AP) ·ASSOCIATED PRESS
A look at some of Trump's observations on the stock market over the last year:
“THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET BECAUSE MY POLLS AGAINST BIDEN ARE SO GOOD THAT INVESTORS ARE PROJECTING THAT I WILL WIN, AND THAT WILL DRIVE THE MARKET UP — EVERYTHING ELSE IS TERRIBLE (WATCH THE MIDDLE EAST!), AND RECORD SETTING INFLATION HAS ALREADY TAKEN ITS TOLL. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”
“High Interest Rates and Inflation are choking our great middle class, and ALL, our Economy is bad, and our Stock Market is rising only because Polls are strongly indicating that we will WIN the Presidential Election of 2024.”
“The stock market is, in a sense, crashing. The numbers are very bad. This is Bidenomics. It’s catching up with him. It’s lucky that it’s catching up before he leaves office as opposed to after he leaves office.”
“Thank you to Scott Bessent, one of the Great Prognosticators on Wall Street! There are many people that are saying that the only reason the Stock Market is high is because I am leading in all of the Polls, and if I don’t win, we will have a CRASH of similar proportions to 1929. I agree, but let’s hope we don’t have to worry about that!”
“If Harris wins this election, the result will be a Kamala economic crash, a 1929-style depression. 1929. When I win the election, we will immediately begin a brand new Trump economic boom. It’ll be a boom. We’re going to turn this country around so fast. Many people say that they only reason the stock market is up is because people think I am going to win.”
Trump started praising Bessent and said: “You know what his theory is? The stock market is the only sign of life, and it’s only going up because everyone thinks Trump is going to win the election. And others, too. Others, too. I’m seeing it a lot. I think they’re following your lead. But I appreciate that confidence.”
“We had three or four of the highest — I guess, almost every single day, we set new records in the stock market. We set new records economically."
Trump, in comments directed at House Speaker Mike Johnson, then said: “Mr. Speaker, I think it’s important, maybe you should pass a bill, you have to start my term from Nov. 5, OK, or Nov. 6, if you want. Nov. 5 because the market has gone through the roof. Enthusiasm has doubled.”
Trump was asked by host Jim Cramer whether it's still the case that stock market indexes were a good barometer of his performance.
“Well, I think I’ve always said, you know, to me, stock market is very — all of it, you know, all of it together, it’s very important. It’s an honor to be here in New York Stock Exchange. I sort of joked that I actually bought the building across the street because the stock exchange was here. It’s a big deal.”
“Everyone is calling it the — I don’t want to say this. It’s too braggadocious, but we’ll say it anyway, the Trump effect. It’s you. You’re the effect. Since the election, the stock market has surged, and small business optimism has soared, a record 41 points to a 39-year high.”
Having sparked a North American trade war and with the S&P 500 losing all of its post-election gains, Trump said in his speech to Congress: “Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again, and it’s happening and it will happen rather quickly. There’ll be a little disturbance, but we’re OK with that. It won't be much."
After a week of wild swings on Wall Street over uncertainty about his tariffs, Trump was asked whether he was expecting a recession in 2025. He said: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing.” He added, “It takes a little time. It takes a little time. But I think it should be great for us."
Elsewhere in the interview, when Trump was asked about the market going down: “You can’t really watch the stock market. ... You can’t go by that. You have to do what’s right.”
When asked about his hesitation during the "Sunday Morning Futures" interview before answering the recession question, Trump said: “I tell you what, of course you hesitate. Who knows? All I know is this: We’re going to take in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs, and we’re going to become so rich you’re not going to know where to spend all that money. I’m telling you, you just watch.”
Trump was asked about the market after a selloff Monday and more trembling on the markets Tuesday. “Markets are going to go up and they’re going to go down. We have to rebuild our country," he said.
In response to a question about whether his tariffs caused the turmoil in the markets, Trump said: “Biden gave us a horrible economy. He gave us horrible inflation. And I think the market was going to go very, very bad. If anything, I have a lot of very smart people, friends of mine, and great businessmen. They're not investing because of what I've done.”
On whether he thinks there will be a recession: “I don't see it at all. I think this country's going to boom. But as I said, I can do it the easy way or the hard way. The hard way to do it is exactly what I'm doing, but the results are going to be 20 times greater. Remember, Trump is always right.”
