Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Orocobre (ASX:ORE) share price has dived 34% in the last thirty days. That drop has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 31% in that time.
Assuming nothing else has changed, a lower share price makes a stock more attractive to potential buyers. In the long term, share prices tend to follow earnings per share, but in the short term prices bounce around in response to short term factors (which are not always obvious). The implication here is that long term investors have an opportunity when expectations of a company are too low. One way to gauge market expectations of a stock is to look at its Price to Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio). A high P/E ratio means that investors have a high expectation about future growth, while a low P/E ratio means they have low expectations about future growth.
See our latest analysis for Orocobre
Does Orocobre Have A Relatively High Or Low P/E For Its Industry?
We can tell from its P/E ratio of 24.46 that there is some investor optimism about Orocobre. You can see in the image below that the average P/E (10.0) for companies in the metals and mining industry is lower than Orocobre's P/E.
Orocobre's P/E tells us that market participants think the company will perform better than its industry peers, going forward. Clearly the market expects growth, but it isn't guaranteed. So further research is always essential. I often monitor director buying and selling.
How Growth Rates Impact P/E Ratios
Earnings growth rates have a big influence on P/E ratios. Earnings growth means that in the future the 'E' will be higher. Therefore, even if you pay a high multiple of earnings now, that multiple will become lower in the future. So while a stock may look expensive based on past earnings, it could be cheap based on future earnings.
Orocobre shrunk earnings per share by 13% over the last year. But EPS is up 27% over the last 3 years.
Don't Forget: The P/E Does Not Account For Debt or Bank Deposits
It's important to note that the P/E ratio considers the market capitalization, not the enterprise value. So it won't reflect the advantage of cash, or disadvantage of debt. The exact same company would hypothetically deserve a higher P/E ratio if it had a strong balance sheet, than if it had a weak one with lots of debt, because a cashed up company can spend on growth.
While growth expenditure doesn't always pay off, the point is that it is a good option to have; but one that the P/E ratio ignores.
So What Does Orocobre's Balance Sheet Tell Us?
Since Orocobre holds net cash of US$11m, it can spend on growth, justifying a higher P/E ratio than otherwise.