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For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. We regret to report that long term Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (NYSE:AHH) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 15% in three years, versus a market return of about 44%. Even worse, it's down 8.8% in about a month, which isn't fun at all. But this could be related to poor market conditions -- stocks are down 10% in the same time.
After losing 6.1% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
View our latest analysis for Armada Hoffler Properties
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Armada Hoffler Properties saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 31% per year, over the last three years. In comparison the 5% compound annual share price decline isn't as bad as the EPS drop-off. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment -- or it may have previously priced some of the drop in. This positive sentiment is also reflected in the generous P/E ratio of 115.71.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
This free interactive report on Armada Hoffler Properties' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Armada Hoffler Properties the TSR over the last 3 years was -2.7%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Armada Hoffler Properties has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 4.2% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. However, that falls short of the 4% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Armada Hoffler Properties better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Armada Hoffler Properties (1 doesn't sit too well with us) that you should be aware of.