The projected fair value for Sulzer is CHF140 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Sulzer is estimated to be 40% undervalued based on current share price of CHF84.00
Analyst price target for SUN is CHF104 which is 26% below our fair value estimate
How far off is Sulzer Ltd (VTX:SUN) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
See our latest analysis for Sulzer
Is Sulzer Fairly Valued?
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF (CHF, Millions)
CHF247.5m
CHF272.0m
CHF288.3m
CHF300.5m
CHF309.4m
CHF315.9m
CHF320.7m
CHF324.1m
CHF326.6m
CHF328.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x2
Analyst x2
Est @ 5.99%
Est @ 4.22%
Est @ 2.98%
Est @ 2.11%
Est @ 1.50%
Est @ 1.07%
Est @ 0.78%
Est @ 0.57%
Present Value (CHF, Millions) Discounted @ 6.7%
CHF232
CHF239
CHF238
CHF232
CHF224
CHF215
CHF204
CHF194
CHF183
CHF173
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CHF2.1b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (0.08%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.7%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CHF5.0b÷ ( 1 + 6.7%)10= CHF2.6b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CHF4.8b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CHF84.0, the company appears quite good value at a 40% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
SWX:SUN Discounted Cash Flow January 18th 2024
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Sulzer as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.314. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Sulzer
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
Weakness
No major weaknesses identified for SUN.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Swiss market.
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Sulzer, we've compiled three additional aspects you should consider:
Financial Health: Does SUN have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does SUN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SWX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
