Does the November share price for On the Beach Group plc (LON:OTB) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF (£, Millions)
UK£21.2m
UK£30.6m
UK£31.8m
UK£32.8m
UK£33.8m
UK£34.7m
UK£35.5m
UK£36.4m
UK£37.2m
UK£38.0m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x4
Analyst x6
Analyst x1
Est @ 3.20%
Est @ 2.87%
Est @ 2.64%
Est @ 2.48%
Est @ 2.37%
Est @ 2.29%
Est @ 2.24%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 8.2%
UK£19.5
UK£26.1
UK£25.1
UK£23.9
UK£22.7
UK£21.6
UK£20.4
UK£19.3
UK£18.3
UK£17.2
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£214m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.2%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= UK£635m÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)10= UK£288m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is UK£502m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of UK£1.6, the company appears quite good value at a 46% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
LSE:OTB Discounted Cash Flow November 23rd 2024
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at On the Beach Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.261. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for On the Beach Group
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Debt is well covered by earnings.
Weakness
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hospitality market.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the British market.
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For On the Beach Group, we've put together three fundamental elements you should further research:
Future Earnings: How does OTB's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every British stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
