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Shareholders might have noticed that Open Text Corporation (NASDAQ:OTEX) filed its second-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.4% to US$27.86 in the past week. Revenues were US$1.3b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.87, an impressive 93% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for Open Text
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from twelve analysts covering Open Text is for revenues of US$5.22b in 2025. This implies a discernible 3.5% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 24% to US$1.93 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$5.31b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.66 in 2025. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the nice increase in earnings per share expectations following these results.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$35.08, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Open Text at US$48.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$31.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 7.0% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 15% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 12% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Open Text is expected to lag the wider industry.