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These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But one can do better than that by picking better than average stocks (as part of a diversified portfolio). To wit, the Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) share price is 43% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 29% (not including dividends) in the same period. If it can keep that out-performance up over the long term, investors will do very well! On the other hand, longer term shareholders have had a tougher run, with the stock falling 33% in three years.
While this past week has detracted from the company's one-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.
See our latest analysis for Intel
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Intel went from making a loss to reporting a profit, in the last year.
When a company has just transitioned to profitability, earnings per share growth is not always the best way to look at the share price action.
We are skeptical of the suggestion that the 1.2% dividend yield would entice buyers to the stock. Intel's revenue actually dropped 14% over last year. So using a snapshot of key business metrics doesn't give us a good picture of why the market is bidding up the stock.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Intel will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Intel the TSR over the last 1 year was 45%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.