Old Chang Kee (Catalist:5ML) shareholders have endured a 4.8% loss from investing in the stock five years ago

It's possible to achieve returns close to the market-weighted average return by buying an index fund. A talented investor can beat the market with a diversified portfolio, but even then, some stocks will under-perform. While the Old Chang Kee Ltd. (Catalist:5ML) share price is down 18% over half a decade, the total return to shareholders (which includes dividends) was -4.8%. That's better than the market which declined 6.6% over the same time.

Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.

See our latest analysis for Old Chang Kee

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, Old Chang Kee actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 10% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.

It is unusual to see such modest share price growth in the face of sustained EPS improvements. We can look to other metrics to try to understand the situation better.

The revenue fall of 2.1% per year for five years is neither good nor terrible. But it's quite possible the market had expected better; a closer look at the revenue trends might explain the pessimism.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
Catalist:5ML Earnings and Revenue Growth July 10th 2023

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Old Chang Kee the TSR over the last 5 years was -4.8%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!