Chicago, IL –December 12, 2024 – Zacks Equity Research shares Okta OKTA, as the Bull of the Day and CleanSpark CLSK, as the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on Halliburton Company HAL, SLB SLB and Baker Hughes BKR.
Besides that fact that the company specializes in "identity security," in essence making sure that the person authorized for an IT function is the one being authenticated and monitored, they are also aggressively pursuing the edges of new AI threat vectors.
Yesterday, they rolled out an expansion of an existing service, Auth0, to attract more corporate clients as the threat landscape evolves. Traditional identity threats, bolstered by AI advances, are enabling low-quality, high-intensity attacks to become more dangerous and helping new, personalized attacks to emerge.
With bots making up nearly 50% of all internet traffic, developers are challenged with securing their applications in this landscape. Multi-factor authentication (MFA), with possession-based or biometric factors, remains as one of the most effective defenses.
Conversely, AI can also power bot detection, with AI helping Okta block 79% of automated login attempts and recently reduce bot traffic by 90% over a 90 day period.
(end of excerpt from my Sep 25 report where you can also read the recent press release about Auth0, their premier identity solution)
Finally this month, OKTA gets out of the cyber doghouse with their Q3 report and price targets jump over $100. Here's what I told my TAZR Trader group last week...
Okta delivered a strong report last night and price targets are climbing above $100 -- even from the reluctant "neutral" crowd (Jefferies, Susquehanna, Barclays, Piper). But here's a good summary from the biggest bulls on the Street with a $130 PT...
Guggenheim analyst John DiFucci said pressure on new deals and contract renewals is at least partially being offset by sales of news products.
"We continue to believe that this is the reason to own OKTA, and while the volatility around this name undoubtedly has caused bouts of nausea among investors, we believe the business (and stock) can build from this foundation," DiFucci wrote in a note last week.
You can get more detail about the OKTA numbers in this article...
Okta (OKTA) Reports Q3 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say
Since the report, where shares gapped up above $90, she's fallen back to fill the gap from $82 and we are now pushing back above $85. I think you can still buy this premier provider now before the inevitable reach for new highs above $100.
Bottom line: Ransomware costs are expected to soar at a 30% CAGR from $35B in 2023 to $220B by 2030. You don't have to buy OKTA, but you better own at least 3 cyber firms since the enterprises needing extensive protection usually employ 5+ of them to cover all bases.
CleanSpark is a $4 billion technology enterprise that call's itself "America's Bitcoin Miner."
I ran a year-to-date look at CLSK shares vs some other prominent miners. While CLSK is up nearly 20%, the big dog Marathon Digital is flat for the year, despite their big Bitcoin acquisitions.
Meanwhile Iris Energyis up over 90% while Riot Platforms is down over 20%.
CleanSpark responsibly develops infrastructure for Bitcoin, an essential tool for financial independence and inclusion. We strive to leave the planet better than we found it by investing in communities that we operate in. Bitcoin is a watershed moment, not only in the history and invention of money, but in how we relate to each other.
CLSK topline growth looks strong, with a projected jump this fiscal year (ends September) to $637 million for a 68% advance.
The problem is that the same analysts took down EPS estimates for the same period from +12 cents to -30 cents in the past two months.
I don't know all the details of why they made that move. But considering how revolutionary the Bitcoin mining business is becoming, there is definitely some re-modeling that Wall Street analysts must do with their revenue and profit projections.
The "spreadsheet jockeys" who also had to drop coverage of MicroStrategy because they couldn't figure it out, will be doing their homework over the coming quarters and finding their way back to Bitcoin-centric stocks.
To learn more, see my recent essay which explains the mania and the math over Bitcoin...
The Bitcoin Heist and Bailout: Cyber Manhattan
As Halliburton Company experiences a significant downturn, now trading just 7% above its 52-week low, investors might be tempted to see this as a buying opportunity. However, a deeper look reveals reasons for caution. The oilfield services giant — down 19.6% in 2024 — has not only underperformed its peers in the Zacks Oil and Gas Field Servicesindustry but has also lagged behind the broader S&P 500 Index year to date.
Halliburton’s latest quarterly report offered little comfort to its investors. The company reported adjusted net income per share of 73 cents, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 75 cents. This figure also marked a decline from the prior year’s adjusted profit of 79 cents. The weak third-quarter numbers reflect subdued activity in the North American region and the effects of the August cyberattackincident. Revenues dipped 1.8% year over year to $5.7 billion, missing projections of $5.8 billion.
North America, a critical market for Halliburton, bore the brunt of this underperformance. Regional revenues plummeted 8.5% year over year to $2.4 billion. The Completion and Production segment faced setbacks, with operating income dropping to $669 million from $746 million in the previous year. Weak demand for U.S. onshore pressure pumping services, declining completion tool sales in multiple regions, and subdued stimulation activity in Latin America weighed heavily on results.
Halliburton’s significant exposure to the North American market — where approximately 40% of its revenues are generated — poses a key risk. This dependency is much higher than its peers like SLB or Baker Hughes — 20% and 25%, respectively — making the company more vulnerable to regional weakness.
The North American market is projected to face further seasonal budget exhaustion, potentially dragging down full-year revenues. Margins are also likely to suffer, raising concerns about HAL’s ability to maintain its competitive edge.
Meanwhile, the international segment showed modest growth, up 4% year over year. However, challenges such as decreased drilling activity in the North Sea and project delays in the Middle East cast a pall on HAL’s prospects. Additionally, if OPEC+ nations were to increase production, it could disrupt global oil supply dynamics, reducing demand for Halliburton’s services and putting further pressure on profitability.
A cybersecurity incident in Q3 further complicated Halliburton’s situation. This breach disrupted billing and collection processes, impacting free cash flow and earnings per share by an estimated 2 cents. It also forced the company to suspend its share repurchase program temporarily, limiting shareholder returns.
Long-term digitization projects, such as SAP system upgrades, were already delayed prior to this incident. The breach underscores potential operational vulnerabilities that could weigh on HAL’s future performance and investor confidence.
Adding to investor concerns, earnings estimates for Halliburton have been revised downward. Projections for 2024 EPS have dropped by 4% over the past two months to $3.00, while 2025 estimates fell by more than 8% in the same period. This downward trend erodes Halliburton’s growth narrative and suggests that its challenges are far from over.
From a valuation perspective, while Halliburton might appear attractive relative to the subindustry, it is still trading above its 3-year low. Going by the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, the company is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 9.33, higher than its 3-year low of 8.10. We don’t think that this premium is justified given the company’s softening North American activity and pressure on margins.
Despite Halliburton’s prominent position in the oilfield services sector, its recent struggles make it a risky bet. Weak Q3 results, growing challenges in North America, international headwinds, and cybersecurity issues all point to a difficult road ahead. With declining earnings estimates and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), Halliburton stock is not the bargain it may appear to be. Investors would be wise to wait for clear signs of improvement before considering an entry.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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