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Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Rebounding Ahead of EIA Data after Shrugging Off Unexpected API Build

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U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are edging higher early Wednesday as traders shrugged off a potentially bearish private industry inventories report released late Tuesday. The focus now shifts to the official weekly inventories data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), due to be released at 14:30 GMT.

At 03:02 GMT, June WTI crude oil is trading $101.62, up $1.86 or +1.86%. July Brent crude oil is at $104.38, up $1.92 or 1.87%. On Tuesday, the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) settled at $74.57, down $2.00 or -2.61%.

American Petroleum Institute Weekly Inventories Report

WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell early Wednesday after the API reported an inventory build for crude oil of 1.618 million barrels, for the week-ending May 6. Analysts were predicting a 1.2 million barrel draw.

Late Tuesday, the API also reported a build in gasoline inventories at 823,000 barrels for the week ending April 29. Last week, the group reported a 4.50-million-barrel draw.

Distillate stocks saw a build in inventory of 662,000 barrels for the week compared to last week’s 4.457-million-barrel decrease.

European Refiners’ Inventories Stabilize Month-to-Month

European refiners’ crude and oil product stocks stood at about 1 billion barrels in April, down 10.3% on a year-on-year basis but nearly the same level as in March, Euroilstock data showed. Middle distillate stocks fell by 15.4% on the year in April, and by almost 3% from March, the data showed.

EIA Trims US Crude Production Forecasts

On the supply side, the EIA trimmed its U.S. crude production forecasts for 2022 and 2023. It now expects output in 2022 to average 11.9 million barrels per day (bpd) compared with its previous estimate of 12 bpd.

U.S. crude output is expected to rise 940,000 bpd to 12.85 million bpd in 2023, according to the EIA. U.S. total petroleum consumption is due to rise 730,000 bpd to 20.51 million bpd in 2022.

Wednesday’s Outlook

Crude oil traders will be focusing on the EIA inventories report early Wednesday with the government due to release its data at 14:30 GMT.

In the U.S., crude, distillates and gasoline inventories likely fell last week, a preliminary Reuters poll of weekly data showed on Monday.

A consensus of analysts predicts a drop in EIA crude oil inventories of 1.0 million barrels during the week-ending May 6. The week-ending April 29, crude inventories rose an unexpected 1.3 million barrels.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire