(Bloomberg) -- Oil was steady ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, as the market braced for a period of uncertainty and turmoil at the start of his second term in the White House.
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Brent traded below $81 a barrel after falling over the past two sessions, while West Texas Intermediate was near $78. Trump is poised to invoke emergency powers in the hours after he’s sworn in as part of his plan to unleash domestic energy production, according to people familiar with the matter.
The incoming president has also threatened hefty tariffs on trade partners including China, Canada and Mexico, and could implement sanctions on Iran.
Crude has rallied at the start of the year, after frigid weather in the Northern Hemisphere drove higher heating demand and broader US sanctions on Russia’s oil industry left customers in Asia seeking alternative supplies. Trading volumes for Monday’s session may be lower due to a federal holiday in the US.
The additional sanctions on Russia have upended tanker markets, led to prices of Middle Eastern crude surging and Brent’s prompt spread widening in a bullish backwardation structure. Speculators have increased their long-only positions on Brent, although there’s also been a smaller buildup of shorts.
Scott Bessent, Trump’s nominee for Treasury secretary, said last week he would support dialing up measures targeting Russia’s oil industry, which would likely mean even more disruption. The President-elect’s pick for national security adviser has previously vowed “maximum pressure” on Iran.
“If Bessent gets his way, the energy sanctions will only tighten,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy for Mizuho Bank Ltd. “But the bigger picture for me is that the US is intent on extending its reach as a dominant energy exporter.”
Meanwhile, a ceasefire in Gaza has begun, leading to a suspension of prolonged hostilities. The Qatari and Egyptian-mediated deal backed by the US stipulates an initial six-week truce during which 33 hostages will be freed by Hamas in return for hundreds of Palestinians jailed by Israel.
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