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Markets are betting on another rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, as policymakers attempt to engineer a soft landing for a U.S. economy trying to avoid a recession. The working model: the Fed’s 75 basis points of cuts in 1995 and 1996 to steer clear of a downturn.
If the Federal Open Market Committee delivers a 25 basis point cut at the conclusion of its meeting on Oct. 30, it will be the third consecutive reduction of the benchmark interest rate. With risks from trade and global concerns abroad continuing to weigh on the U.S. economy, the Fed faces questions about whether the Fed is on the path to further easing in the near-term.
Wall Street is projecting a rate cut at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting Wednesday, but analysts are split on whether the easing cycle will stop there, as what Goldman Sachs calls a “three and out.”
“Strong signaling from Fed leadership indicates that the modest trade war de-escalation since September has not deterred them from completing a 75 [basis point], 1990s-style ‘mid-cycle adjustment,’” Jan Hatzius at Goldman Sachs wrote Oct. 24.
Credit Suisse agrees with Goldman Sachs, but wrote Oct. 24 that they could see the Fed tolerating some market pricing for further easing.
Morgan Stanley similarly said they expect the Fed to “pause” on rate cuts after an expected 25 basis point cut on Wednesday, but said the pause “will not be signaled.”
Barclays, however, expects a fourth cut in December.
“Since shifting to slower U.S. growth earlier this year, our high conviction view was that the Fed would ultimately need to provide more accommodation than it expects to stabilize the outlook,” analysts at Barclays wrote Oct. 21.
With such a wide divergence of expectations on future moves, markets could be sensitive to the way Fed Chairman Jerome Powell messages policy in his scheduled press conference. Wells Fargo’s Sam Bullard wrote Oct. 28 that Powell will “walk a fine line” in communicating forward guidance.
As of Monday afternoon, Fed funds futures markets were pricing in a 95.1% chance of another 25 basis point cut at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on October 30.
Back to 1995
There is historical precedent to asking if three 25 basis point rate cuts are the perfect defense against a recession.
That’s because three is the exact number of 25 basis point cuts that the Fed delivered on in the mid-1990s to avoid recession fears amid the Russian debt default and the near collapse of hedge fund Long Term Capital Management.
Between July 1995 and January 1996, the Alan Greenspan-led Fed cut rates three times, for a total of 75 basis points. Before delivering the first of those three cuts on July 6, 1995, Greenspan told FOMC participants that the risks were needed to help the economy work through uncertainty. But Greenspan said it was uncertainty that the economy could “work its way through.”