We recently compiled a list of the Top 15 Commodity Producers With the Highest Upside Potential.In this article, we are going to take a look at where Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) stands against the other Commodity Producer stocks.
Commodity producer stocks are shares of publicly listed firms that produce, explore, or distribute commodities. These businesses are frequently interested in metals, mining, agriculture, and energy. Commodity producer stocks are chosen by investors to obtain exposure to both the equity and commodities markets, potentially profiting from heightened interest in either.
The commodity market is booming. According to a research report, the size of the global commodity services market was projected at $3.56 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.65% from 2025 to 2034, from $3.87 billion in 2025 to roughly $8.16 billion by 2034. Regionally, the commodity services industry is dominated by North America, while Asia Pacific is projected to grow at a quick pace.
However, the World Bank’s April 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook projects that global commodity prices will plummet, falling 12% in 2025 and further 5% in 2026 to their lowest level since 2020. The anticipated drop is being driven by slowing global economic growth and persistently high oil supply. This decline carries risks to economic growth in developing countries, with two-thirds likely to see setbacks, even though it may reduce short-term price pressures associated with rising trade barriers. Notwithstanding the drop, nominal prices will still be higher than they were before the pandemic.
Ayhan Kose, the World Bank Group’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group, stated:
“Commodity prices have whipsawed throughout the 2020s—plummeting with arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic, then surging to record highs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and then sinking again,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank Group’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group. “In an era of geopolitical tensions, surging demand for critical minerals, and more frequent natural disasters, that could become the new normal. Successfully navigating through repeated commodity prices swings will require developing economies to build fiscal space, strengthen their institutions, and improve investment climates to facilitate job creation.”
On the other hand, Morgan Stanley, on February 21, highlighted that 2025 is anticipated to be a crucial year for commodity markets, influenced by supply fundamentals, inflation patterns, and dollar fluctuations. Inflation in the United States is still high, falling short of the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in December with headline CPI readings of 2.9% and core CPI readings of 3.2%. After the U.S. presidential election, policy changes—particularly related to immigration, deficits, and tariffs—have raised inflation expectations. According to data from the University of Michigan, they rose from 2.8% to 3.3% in just one month. Commodity prices have generally been supported by these conditions.
Since late September, the U.S. dollar has risen by almost 8%, in part because of growing interest rates and policy expectations. Global demand for commodities is usually pressured by a strong dollar, but if the currency stabilizes or depreciates, it may eliminate a significant obstacle. Although recent contango suggests sufficient short-term supply, a yield-adjusted perspective reveals markets in backwardation at about 4%, showing ongoing physical tightness. This suggests that inventories for essential commodities remain low, making the market more susceptible to demand shocks. Commodity performance in 2025 is supported by tight supply, high inflation, as well as potential dollar weakness.
Top 15 Commodity Producers With the Highest Upside Potential
Oil derricks in the background with a few workers in the foreground, emphasizing the company’s oil and gas production activities.
Our Methodology
To collect data for this article, we examined companies operating in the commodity sector and then compiled a list of the stocks with the highest upside potential according to Wall Street analysts, as of May 1, 2025. To keep our list relevant, we have only included companies with a market cap of $10 billion and above. The following are the Commodity Producers with the Highest Upside Potential.
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Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) is one of the world’s leading independent oil and gas producers. Its upstream operations are dispersed throughout North Africa, the Middle East, and the US. The firm owns a majority equity stake in Western Midstream and operates a consolidated midstream business that supplies the upstream segment with gathering, processing, and transportation services. The portfolio also consists of a chemicals company that makes PVC and caustic soda. The latter segment benefits from low energy and ethylene prices, but its profitability is governed by the strength of the overall economy.
Despite having dropped over 40% from its peak, Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) is still a strong investment opportunity due to its affordable price and advantageous supply dynamics. The lower-than-average U.S. oil supply at the moment may eventually catalyze rising oil prices, which would be advantageous to the company. When compared to competitors like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and BP, the business seems to be reasonably valued from a valuation perspective, particularly when looking at PEG and PE indicators. The business stands to benefit from operational leverage as well as a possible market re-rating as energy markets normalize and supply limitations persist. The firm’s combination of industry tailwinds and enticing valuation metrics places it as a remarkable fallen angel with a positive risk/reward profile for investors looking for value in the energy sector.
According to Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY), production in the Permian Basin is expected to rise by more than 15% by 2025. This is due to a modest increase across legacy positions and a full year of CrownRock contributions. It is anticipated that CrownRock assets alone will average more than 170,000 BOE per day, which is more than 5% growth. The company’s US onshore portfolio accounts for more than 75% of its oil and gas capital, with the Permian receiving a sizable share of this allocation.
Overall, OXY ranks 10th on our list of the Top Commodity Producers With the Highest Upside Potential. While we acknowledge the potential of OXY as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. There is an AI stock that went up since the beginning of 2025, while popular AI stocks lost around 25%. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than OXY but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
