NZ central bank cuts rates, expects more easings as economy slows

* RBNZ cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.0 pct in second cut since June

* Cenbank sees softer economic outlook, low inflation

* Reuters poll: Most economists see rates at 2.5 pct by end-2015 (Adds details, comment)

By Naomi Tajitsu

WELLINGTON, July 23 (Reuters) - New Zealand's central bank cut its policy rate by a quarter percentage point on Thursday in response to a slowing economy, and looks set to return rates to levels during the depths of the global financial crisis.

The New Zealand dollar rallied on the decision as some had expected a more aggressive 50-basis-point reduction, highlighting how a collapse in dairy prices is squeezing an economy that was the envy of the developed world only a few months ago.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.0 percent, the second cut in as many months in a stark shift from 2014 when it tightened rates by 100 basis points.

"A reduction in the OCR is warranted by the softening in the economic outlook and low inflation," RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler said in a statement.

"At this point, some further easing seems likely," Wheeler said, backing market expectations for rates to fall toward 2.50 percent by year-end - matching levels seen during the 2009 global financial crisis.

In the past few months the economy has started to show cracks after galloping at an enviable 3.0 percent-plus growth rate until the end of last year.

A slowdown in major trading partner China - a big buyer of New Zealand's key dairy products - and cooling domestic inflation have policy makers worried about an even bigger hit to the agriculture-based economy.

"Clearly there still is an easing bias in there ... But I think like many central banks around the world there's a large burden on the data," said Tom Kennedy, economist at JPMorgan in Sydney.

All 13 economists polled by Reuters after Thursday's announcement are predicting another 25-basis point easing at the next policy review in September.

DAIRY WOES

The past month alone has seen a roughly 20 percent fall in global dairy prices, substantially hurting farmer incomes.

Business and consumer sentiment has sunk to three-year lows, as annual economic growth, which eased to 2.6 percent in the first quarter, shows signs of cooling further.

Adding to the economic risks is persistently sluggish domestic inflation, which is running at an annual 0.3 percent rate - well below the midpoint of the RBNZ's 1-3 percent target range over the medium term.

The New Zealand dollar jumped roughly half a U.S. cent to a one-week high of $0.6654 after the announcement, before trimming gains to trade around $0.6620 by 0133 GMT.

The outlook for the kiwi, however, doesn't look bright given its eroding yield advantage as policy becomes more stimulatory just as the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by year end.

"While the currency depreciation will provide support to the export and import competing sectors, further depreciation is necessary given the weakness in export commodity prices," RBNZ's Wheeler said.

(Editing by Matthew Lewis & Shri Navaratnam)

Advertisement