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Amid recent market volatility, investors are anxiously awaiting Nvidia’s NVDA fourth-quarter results this week, with the chip giant set to release its Q4 report after-market hours on Wednesday, February 26.
Having a market cap of $3.29 trillion, Nvidia is the largest holding in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq outside of Apple AAPL. That said, Nvidia’s stock tends to have larger price fluctuations than Apple, and could heavily influence which direction the broader indexes go from here.
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Why Nvidia’s Q4 Results Are So Significant
Nvidia’s quarterly results are usually in the spotlight, however, Wall Street is especially on notice for its Q4 report to provide some insight into the current state of the artificial intelligence boom. This comes as Chinese enterprise DeepSeek has entered the global market as a potential disrupter, garnishing significant attention in recent months for its advanced AI models and applications.
DeekSeek’s AI capabilities are rumored to have equal or greater efficiency and performance than its U.S. counterparts, including a chatbot that rivals OpenAI’s ChatGPT among other large language models (LLMs). Furthermore, DeepSeek’s offerings/operations are significantly cheaper which has cast doubts on demand for Nvidia’s AI chips, and increased spending on artificial intelligence by other U.S. firms.
Making matters more significant to a broader base of investors (especially those in the U.S.), is that economic concerns have reemerged amid the Trump administration's tariff implementations. After reaching fresh all-time highs last Tuesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have pulled back sharply in the last few trading sessions with market sentiment wayfaring.
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Nvidia’s Q4 Expectations
As shown in the price performance chart above, Nvidia’s stock has certainly lifted and often carried the broader indexes in recent years.
Optimistically, Nvidia’s Q4 sales are thought to have increased 70% to $37.72 billion compared to $22.1 billion in the comparative quarter. On the bottom line, Q4 earnings are projected at $0.84 per share, a 61% increase from EPS of $0.52 in the prior period. Nvidia has surpassed sales estimates for 23 consecutive quarters and has exceeded earnings expectations for eight straight quarters. Notably, Nvidia has posted an average EPS surprise of 9.79% in its last four quarterly reports.
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Tracking Nvidia’s Outlook
Rounding out its fiscal year 2025, Nvidia’s total sales are expected to soar 112% to $129.02 billion versus $60.92 billion in FY24. Even better, annual earnings are slated to skyrocket 126% to $2.94 per share from EPS of $1.30 in FY24.