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While Gentrack Group Limited (NZSE:GTK) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw a significant share price rise of 30% in the past couple of months on the NZSE. The company is now trading at yearly-high levels following the recent surge in its share price. As a stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Today we will analyse the most recent data on Gentrack Group’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
See our latest analysis for Gentrack Group
What's The Opportunity In Gentrack Group?
Gentrack Group appears to be overvalued by 32% at the moment, based on our discounted cash flow valuation. The stock is currently priced at NZ$10.15 on the market compared to our intrinsic value of NZ$7.71. This means that the opportunity to buy Gentrack Group at a good price has disappeared! But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Gentrack Group’s share price is quite volatile, this could mean it can sink lower (or rise even further) in the future, giving us another chance to invest. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
What kind of growth will Gentrack Group generate?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Gentrack Group's earnings over the next few years are expected to double, indicating a very optimistic future ahead. This should lead to stronger cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in GTK’s positive outlook, with shares trading above its fair value. At this current price, shareholders may be asking a different question – should I sell? If you believe GTK should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on GTK for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its true value, which means there’s no upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for GTK, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.