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FirstGroup plc (LON:FGP), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a decent share price growth of 12% on the LSE over the last few months. The recent share price gains has brought the company back closer to its yearly peak. With many analysts covering the stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Let’s examine FirstGroup’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.
View our latest analysis for FirstGroup
Is FirstGroup Still Cheap?
FirstGroup appears to be overvalued by 31% at the moment, based on our discounted cash flow valuation. The stock is currently priced at UK£1.72 on the market compared to our intrinsic value of £1.31. This means that the opportunity to buy FirstGroup at a good price has disappeared! But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Given that FirstGroup’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
Can we expect growth from FirstGroup?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of FirstGroup, it is expected to deliver a highly negative revenue growth over the next few years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? If you believe FGP is currently trading above its value, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. Given the uncertainty from negative growth in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on FGP for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The company’s price climbed passed its true value, in addition to a risky future outlook. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management. Should the price fall in the future, will you be well-informed enough to buy?