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Criteo S.A. (NASDAQ:CRTO), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a significant share price rise of over 20% in the past couple of months on the NASDAQGS. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Let’s examine Criteo’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.
See our latest analysis for Criteo
What's the opportunity in Criteo?
Criteo is currently expensive based on my price multiple model, where I look at the company's price-to-earnings ratio in comparison to the industry average. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Criteo’s ratio of 28.73x is above its peer average of 19.4x, which suggests the stock is trading at a higher price compared to the Media industry. If you like the stock, you may want to keep an eye out for a potential price decline in the future. Since Criteo’s share price is quite volatile, this could mean it can sink lower (or rise even further) in the future, giving us another chance to invest. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
Can we expect growth from Criteo?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Criteo's earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 21%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? CRTO’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading above industry price multiples. At this current price, shareholders may be asking a different question – should I sell? If you believe CRTO should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on CRTO for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for CRTO, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.