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By Maggie Fick
LONDON (Reuters) - Since launching its wildly popular weight-loss drug Wegovy in 2021, Novo Nordisk has raised its annual sales guidance several times a year.
But recent weak U.S. prescription data is leading some investors and analysts to question whether that stellar run, which helped make Novo Europe's most valuable listed company worth $615 billion at its peak, is coming to an end.
In February, the Danish drugmaker forecast 2025 sales growth of 16% to 24% at constant exchange rates, a much slower pace than in the past few years.
Half a dozen analysts and investors say even that may no longer be realistic and the company could cut the guidance when it releases first-quarter results on May 7.
Novo said in February it had increased supplies of Wegovy to the United States to meet booming demand and that its guidance reflected this.
However, weekly U.S. Wegovy prescriptions have plateaued since mid-February, according to IQVIA data cited by analysts, while there is increased competition from Eli Lilly's Zepbound obesity shot, prescriptions for which outpaced Wegovy by 128,000 in the week ending April 11.
Novo and its rivals also face the threat of their products becoming ensnared in U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war.
While a consensus of 25 analysts polled by LSEG shows Novo's 2025 sales expected to rise 19%, Bank of America analysts expect the company to cut its guidance to 14%-22%, which would be the weakest since 2021.
"I am very cautious on Novo. I definitely see the possibility of a guidance cut," agreed Lukas Leu, a portfolio manager at Bellevue Asset Management, which owns Novo shares.
Concerns about how Novo is faring against Lilly in the fiercely competitive obesity drug market and disappointing trial data for its next-generation drug CagriSema have wiped $230 billion, or 45%, off its market value since early December.
Some analysts expect prescriptions of Wegovy and Ozempic to recover after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) enforces a ban on copies, which Novo says could redirect demand to its own products.
The FDA has given pharmacies until May 22 to stop producing compounded copies of Wegovy, following its assessment that Wegovy and Ozempic are no longer in shortage.
Berenberg analyst Kerry Holford said Novo has been highlighting that it estimates about 30% of volume of semaglutide - the active ingredient in both drugs - in the U.S. is currently supplied by compounding pharmacies.
Novo declined to comment because it is in a quiet period ahead of results and it does not comment on speculation.