Novo Nordisk NVO has seen strong momentum in recent years, driven by the commercial success of its blockbuster semaglutide products, Wegovy (obesity) and Ozempic (diabetes). Building upon this success, NVO is developing several next-generation candidates in its pipeline, especially targeting the lucrative U.S. market.

The most advanced candidate in Novo Nordisk’s pipeline is CagriSema, a fixed-dose combination of a long-acting amylin analogue and Wegovy. CagriSema met the primary endpoint of statistically significant weight loss in two late-stage studies. The company is already planning its regulatory submission in 2026. Novo Nordisk is also developing an early-stage candidate, Amycretin, a unimolecular GLP-1 and amylin receptor agonist, which had outperformed Wegovy in a phase I study.

Novo Nordisk has also been pursuing licensing deals and acquisitions to further expand its obesity pipeline. In 2023, it acquired Inversago Pharmaceuticals, which added a small-molecule oral CB1 inverse agonist, monlunabant, to its pipeline. Recently, Novo Nordisk signed a $2.2 billion deal with Septerna for developing and commercializing oral small-molecule medicines for treating obesity, type II diabetes (T2D) and other cardiometabolic diseases.

Competition Heating Up in the Obesity Space

Eli Lilly LLY is NVO’s fierce competitor in the obesity space, which markets its tirzepatide medicines as Mounjaro for T2D and Zepbound for obesity. Like NVO, LLY is also evaluating several next-generation weight loss candidates. Lilly recently reported first phase III success of its oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron, which showed significant weight reduction potential in the late-stage study. Regulatory filings for orforglipron are planned in 2025 and 2026.

Several other companies, like Viking Therapeutics VKTX, are also making rapid progress in the development of GLP-1-based candidates in their clinical pipeline. Viking Therapeutics’ dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, VK2735, is being developed both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. VKTX initiated a mid-stage study on the oral formulation of the candidate earlier this year and is on track to start the late-stage study on the subcutaneous version soon.

NVO’s Stock Price, Valuation, Estimates

Year to date, Novo Nordisk shares have plunged 15.5% compared with the industry’s decline of 2.3%. The company has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below. The stock is currently trading above its 50-day moving average, but below its 200-day moving average.