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Key Takeaways
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Novo Nordisk shares rose Wednesday on the company's home market in Denmark and in the U.S. after UBS analysts upgraded the stock.
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The analysts upgraded the Ozempic obesity drugmaker to a "buy," but lowered their price target as Novo Nordisk shares are now roughly 40% below their mid-2024 highs.
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UBS analysts also lowered their sales projections, saying expiring patents and disappointing trial results of future weight-loss drugs could negatively affect sales from 2031 onward.
Novo Nordisk's (NVO) U.S.-listed and domestic shares rose Wednesday after analysts from UBS Research upgraded the Danish drugmaker's stock to "buy" from "neutral," calling the recent sell-off of the stock "overdone."
UBS analysts upgraded the stock but lowered their price target for the company's domestic shares, listed in Copenhagen, to 750 Danish kroner ($103.55) from 1,100 kroner. The stock closed at 619.50 kroner at home Wednesday, about 40% below its June 25, 2024, record close of 1,028 kroner.
Recent Slide Makes for 'Attractive Entry Point'
The UBS analysts said that decline provides "an attractive entry point," as they expect the weight- loss drug market to pick up in the first quarter of this year. Novo Nordisk is a leader in that market with its Ozempic and Wegovy drugs, along with its main competitor, Eli Lilly (LLY), and its Mounjaro and Zepbound.
Shares of Novo Nordisk fell nearly 18% in one day last month after results of a trial for its newest weight-loss drug disappointed. The analysts called the trial results "undoubtedly disappointing," but said the drug still looks to be a more effective weight-loss treatment than Ozempic that could "still show differentiation" in treating other diseases like type 2 diabetes in future trials.
Under its new price target, the analysts said they are projecting "risk adjusted peak sales" of $75 billion annually to 2031, rather than $80 billion previously. The sales projection was lowered because of the upcoming expiration of patents for Novo Nordisk's drugs in 2031 in Europe and 2032 in the U.S., which they expect will lead to lower sales, along with the recent weak trial results.
Novo Nordisk's Copenhagen-listed shares closed up roughly 2.8% Wednesday, while its U.S.-listed shares recently were up nearly 2% at $84.94.
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