In This Article:
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The market had a tough week as investors were jolted by Trump's tariff moves.
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But trade policy isn't the only thing derailing stocks. Other parts of the bull thesis under Trump have also been upended.
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Investors are questioning everything from deregulation to the impact and timing of tax cuts.
Trade-war angst, stagflation talk, and a rush to safe havens: the high-flying Trump trade has completely reversed.
As US indexes sink deeper into the red this year, blame has fallen on President Donald Trump's tariffs, which have triggered macro-uncertainty and torn down the S&P 500.
With a risk-off attitude sweeping investors, one question may be top-of-mind: when will the market feel the impact of Trump's pro-growth agenda?
After all, the so-called "Trump bump" was spurred by bets that the new administration would be defined by deregulation and tax cuts, nurturing a pro-business environment that would uplift markets.
This optimism helped pull the S&P up over 7% from November to mid-February. Financials and other sector beneficiaries rose even higher, as did crypto, a regulation-burdened asset.
While markets gained, so did corporate sentiment. According to the EY Parthenon CEO Outlook Survey published in January, 56% of CEOs cited plans to actively pursue M&A activity through 2025, up from 37% in September.
But two months into Trump's presidency deregulatory efforts don't seem to be moving quickly enough to satisfy the market. Instead, Washington's sudden protectionist pivot has gone further than anticipated, with on-again-off-again tariffs on Canada and Mexico sending investors fleeing risk assets.
To Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, an extreme tariff scenario could cancel out the boost to GDP stemming from higher business activity amid less regulation.
Other parts of Trump's agenda are also being questioned.
Consider the IPO market. While positive corporate sentiment led to Goldman Sachs' prediction of a coming IPO "supercycle," it's yet to materialize.
JPMorgan wrote in January that it found no evidence that Trump's win spurred higher corporate activity, with the fourth-quarter pace of IPOs remaining low by historical standards.
"People often look for a little bit of certainty on what government policy looks like before they start making big commitments like going public or engaging with M&A, and we have the feeling that a lot of C-suites are waiting for the dust to settle on what terms of trade look like," Reynolds said.