Children hoping for dolls—and all manner of holiday gifts and merch—may indeed be disappointed come December.
The first vessels carrying goods from China that are subject to President Donald Trump’s 145-percent “reciprocal” tariff rate began to arrive in Los Angeles this week, and the cargo is much sparser than in seasons past.
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In fact, ships carrying tariffed goods from across the globe to U.S. are arriving half empty and holiday shipments are being cancelled at an alarming rate—amounting to a 56-percent drop from last year, according to data from Interos.
The automated supply chain mapping firm’s latest report indicated that the biggest impact will likely be felt by the 457,000 U.S. companies that import common holiday goods like apparel, jewelry, candy, and of course, toys. With inventory already dwindling, the president has intimated that kids should readjust their expectations for the holidays, saying that they should be satisfied with “three or four dolls” this year instead of dozens.
But there may not even be enough inventory to go around at all, never mind multiples. With 90 percent of global trade moving by sea, it’s safe to infer that these initial disruptions in maritime shipping are a bellwether of what’s to come, the group’s report showed.
“Retailers planning for the holidays know the clock starts ticking in June but if you’re placing orders then, you’re already late,” analysts wrote. Maritime lead times range from two to 10 weeks, and production times vary significantly. Ergo, brands and retailers that fail to order their goods during this critical window are likely going to miss out on holiday sales.
But many are paralyzed as they try to make business sense out of their current conundrum. According to Interos’ data, maritime trade of holiday goods nosedived following Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements on April 2. For the four weeks including the week of the announcement and after, maritime trade of holiday goods declined by well over half the historical averages from the same period in 2022, 2023 and 2024.
The group acknowledged that the data is preliminary and could be subject to reporting lags. However, initial trends showed a drop of 18 percent from historical values after Trump’s first executive order regarding trade on Feb. 1, and before the April 2 announcements. Nearly 50 percent of the goods are from China, India and Hong Kong, with China representing almost 30 percent of the products.