Northern Trust Universe Data: Global Markets Respond to Uncertainty with Mixed Results for First Quarter 2025
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CHICAGO, May 07, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Global markets produced mixed results in the first quarter of 2025, largely due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies, ongoing global inflation, and rising geopolitical tensions. The Northern Trust All Funds Over $100 Million plan universe had a median return of 0.7% for the quarter.
The Northern Trust Universe tracks the performance of 377 large U.S. institutional investment plans, with a combined asset value of more than $1.4 trillion, which subscribe to performance measurement services as part of Northern Trust's asset servicing offerings.
The Northern Trust Corporate (ERISA) universe had the strongest investment performance among institutional segments, with a median return of 2.2% in the quarter, while the Northern Trust Public Funds universe median return was 1.1% and Northern Trust Foundation and Endowment (F&E) universe was up 0.5% at the median for the quarter ending March 31.
U.S. equities, a core holding of most U.S. institutional plans, trailed other global equity markets in the first quarter. The Northern Trust U.S. Equity program universe posted a median return of
-4.6% for the quarter, underperforming the S&P 500's return of -4.3% but surpassing the Russell 3000's return of -4.7%. In contrast, the Northern Trust Non-U.S. Equity program universe achieved a median return of 4.9%, while the MSCI World Ex-US Net returned 6.2%.
John Turney, Global Head of Total Portfolio Solutions, Northern Trust Asset Servicing, said: "The first quarter of 2025 unfolded amid a backdrop of uncertainty, with U.S. equities riding high at the start and then falling as new global tariffs in February and March shifted market sentiment. Our Universe data shows that institutional plans with higher equity allocations struggled in comparison with plans that allocate more to fixed income and alternative asset classes."
Bond markets provided a refuge for investors looking to avoid the market volatility created by economic policy changes and geopolitical events. As interest rates fell during the quarter, the Northern Trust U.S. Fixed Income program universe achieved a median return of 2.6% for the quarter.
The ERISA universe median plan return was 2.2% during the quarter. The ERISA plan one, three, and five-year median returns were 4.3%, 0.6%, and 4.7%, respectively. In the Northern Trust ERISA plan universe, the median allocation to U.S. Fixed Income was 54.5%, as plans invested in bonds to match their investments with future benefit payment obligations. This large fixed-income allocation usually leads to less volatile returns compared to other plan sponsor types.