After a year of sluggish demand and never-ending promotions, things may finally be turning a corner in the retail industry. In the first of many holiday retail sales forecasts to be released over the next few weeks, Deloitte on Wednesday predicted the improving overall economy will translate into a retail sales increase between 4 percent and 4.5 percent from November through January. That represents a modest improvement over last year's 2.8 percent gain to $944 billion, according to U.S. Commerce Department data that excludes auto and gasoline sales. Still, experts predict the season will once again be riddled with discounts that come early and often, as retailers compete for shoppers' dollars. "We're really optimistic and there are a few reasons for that," said Alison Paul, vice chairman and U.S. retail and distribution leader at Deloitte. "There are some good economic fundamentals in place this year that weren't as strong last year." Read More Retail's turnover: Plus for the economy, challenge for stores Among them: Income, wage and job growth are all trending positive; debt levels are at historic lows; and stock market gains and rising home prices may boost spending, the firm said. Paul also pointed to lower gas prices which, at a national average of about $3.34 a gallon, are approximately 15 cents cheaper per gallon than one year ago, according to GasBuddy.com. These factors should give a boost to both gift buying and self-purchasing, bringing back the "one for you, one for me" mentality-an important factor in posting robust holiday growth of 3 percent or greater, Paul said. "That was what was lost the last two years to the holidays, was the 'me too' gift buying," she said. "There's a little bit more chance of that impulse buy." Read More Wal-Mart says this is what the kids want for Christmas Deloitte factors January spending into its forecast to account for gift card redemptions and other holiday-related purchases that are made after Christmas. According to research by Stitch Labs, a software provider for retailers and wholesalers, January 2014 raked in 152 percent more sales than the pre-holiday rush in October 2013. Deloitte's forecast comes one week after Challenger, Gray & Christmas said retailers could add 800,000 seasonal workers this holiday for the first time since 1999. The outplacement firm also said holiday spending will "undoubtedly" benefit from payrolls increasing an average of 215,000 new workers each month.

Read More Merry Christmas! Holiday hiring may hit dot-com boom level Separately, management consulting firm Hay Group's annual study found 70 percent of retailers expect sales will be on par with last year, while 24 percent expect an increase of 5 percent or more compared with 2013. It also follows a series of weekly same-store sales gains reported by the International Council of Shopping Centers, which indicate the back-to-school selling period was strong. "If we had run this survey in June, I think we would have gotten a different answer," said Craig Rowley, vice president and global practice leader for Hay Group's retail practice.