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What of this Global Week Ahead?

Coming trading days have a full smorgasbord …of boilerplate data and events.

However full, if you expect big surprises -- from either politics or macro data -- you may well be disappointed by this large agenda.

Despite the considerable noise and hoopla coming from new administrations on both sides of the Atlantic, traders most likely should anticipate a ‘muddle through’ scene – for politics, companies and stocks.

It’s déjà vu, all over again.

Case in point. On Sunday night, U.S. House & Senate negotiators reached a bi-partisan agreement on a $1.1 trillion budget. Under this agreement, the U.S. government stays open through the end of September.

Bloomberg wrote that Republican leaders -- eager to focus on health-care and tax overhauls -- bowed to Democratic demands to eliminate hundreds of policy restrictions aimed at curbing regulations.

This left the Trump administration with few victories. President Trump will be able to point to a $15 billion boost for the Pentagon.

Second, during the Global Week Ahead: 124 S&P 500 firms release earnings.

Any quarterly surprises will be concentrated in the Tech sector and Big Pharma.
Key names include Apple, Facebook, Time Warner, CBS, Kellogg, Loews, Merck, Pfizer, Mastercard and Berkshire Hathaway.

Third, on Tuesday and Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting happens.

This culminates in a statement-only outcome on Wednesday at 2 pm ET. There will be no FOMC forecast updates or press conference.

Chair Yellen’s published statement should be brief. Language from the last statement should be the boilerplate. A minor change to wording could concern the Fed’s reinvestment policy on the huge $4.2 trillion Fed balance sheet.

On Friday, the Fed’s Vice Chair, Stanley Fischer, speaks publicly. That will close out the Fed story. This may be the only non-boilerplate moment from them.

Fourth, Friday’s release of April U.S. non-farm payroll data will be the big macro fundamental event.

Expect a bounce back (already foreseen) from March’s disappointing +98K pace of job adds. Wage growth should stick around the +2¾% y/y pace.  In short, the muddle through scene is still the consensus on U.S. growth fundamentals.

Finally, on Sunday, May 7th, the French Presidential election gets held. The week’s European calendar of data should get ignored, in light of these politics.

Opinionway’s poll, published inside the Financial Times, predicts Emmanuel Macron wins 61% of the vote in the French run-off, with Marine Le Pen at 39%.

This 20-point gap is very wide. It hasn’t moved much. The bigger question may be to ask: Will Russian hackers attack Macron, like they did Hillary Clinton?

In Asia last week, Indian stock markets hit record highs. This was the 4th consecutive month of stock’s rallying there.  

Keep an eye on that. This Indian stock market run may be news -- away from your usual headlines -- that is not boilerplate.