Is Nichols plc's (LON:NICL) Recent Stock Performance Influenced By Its Fundamentals In Any Way?

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editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Wed, Sep 18, 2024, 12:53 AM 4 min read

Nichols' (LON:NICL) stock is up by a considerable 11% over the past three months. As most would know, fundamentals are what usually guide market price movements over the long-term, so we decided to look at the company's key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Nichols' ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

Check out our latest analysis for Nichols

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Nichols is:

19% = UK£19m ÷ UK£100m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. One way to conceptualize this is that for each £1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made £0.19 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of Nichols' Earnings Growth And 19% ROE

To start with, Nichols' ROE looks acceptable. And on comparing with the industry, we found that the the average industry ROE is similar at 20%. As you might expect, the 12% net income decline reported by Nichols is a bit of a surprise. We reckon that there could be some other factors at play here that are preventing the company's growth. Such as, the company pays out a huge portion of its earnings as dividends, or is faced with competitive pressures.

However, when we compared Nichols' growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 6.3% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

past-earnings-growth — AIM:NICL Past Earnings Growth September 18th 2024

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. What is NICL worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether NICL is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Nichols Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Nichols has a high three-year median payout ratio of 58% (that is, it is retaining 42% of its profits). This suggests that the company is paying most of its profits as dividends to its shareholders. This goes some way in explaining why its earnings have been shrinking. With only a little being reinvested into the business, earnings growth would obviously be low or non-existent.

In addition, Nichols has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 53%. Regardless, the future ROE for Nichols is predicted to rise to 23% despite there being not much change expected in its payout ratio.

Conclusion

In total, it does look like Nichols has some positive aspects to its business. However, while the company does have a high ROE, its earnings growth number is quite disappointing. This can be blamed on the fact that it reinvests only a small portion of its profits and pays out the rest as dividends. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.