Will next US president be able to drive a wedge between Russia and China?
South China Morning Post
8 min read
Russia is one of the most divisive topics in the 2024 United States election, with many observers questioning whether Washington would continue to support Ukraine if Donald Trump wins.
The Republican candidate has repeatedly claimed that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine if he had still been in the White House and has claimed he could settle the war in a single day if he wins this time.
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The conflict is also a major barrier between China and the West with the US and European countries repeatedly criticising Beijing's close relations with Russia.
The US has repeatedly expressed its concerns about China's close relationship with Russia and has said its economic support "fuels Russia's war machine" - a charge China has dismissed as smears.
China has denied that it is helping Moscow's war effort and says it is just carrying out "normal trade" with its neighbour.
Regardless of whether Trump or his Democratic rival Kamala Harris wins, many observers believe there is little chance that it will have a significant impact on the relationship between Beijing and Moscow.
They also believe that it is unlikely Russia will be able to improve relations with the West even if Trump - who has regularly spoken favourably about Vladimir Putin and reportedly talked to him seven times since leaving office - wins.
If that proves to be the case, it may only deepen Moscow's economic reliance on China following the imposition of sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine, although some analysts have said Beijing should be prepared in case ties between Russia and the West improve.
Zhang Xin, deputy director of the Centre for Russian Studies at East China Normal University in Shanghai was sceptical about how far the election result would influence the course of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
"I think it is very hard to imagine that if Trump were to take office, he would completely cut off all forms of aid to Ukraine in a firm manner," said Zhang.
He also said: "No matter the outcome of the US election and regardless of whether Trump comes to power, I think the possibility of a sharp reversal in US-Russia relations at the expense of Europe ... and then a scenario where the US teams up with Russia against China, is very small."
Yun Sun, director of the China Programme and co-director of the East Asia Programme at the Stimson Centre in Washington, said even if Trump viewed Russia more favourably than his opponent "that was also true during the first Trump term, and we did not really see a US-Russia rapprochement during those four years".
She said: "Even Trump is subject to domestic constraints. And the Democrats and the Congress will be particularly alert toward any Trump plan that could compromise the US national interest."
Trump has frequently touted his "very good relationship" with Putin but also praised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky when they had their first in-person meeting for five years last month and vowed to negotiate a Ukraine-Russia deal "that's good for both sides".
Zelensky has also said that he had received "very direct information" from Trump about his backing for Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Harris told Zelensky that "my support for the people of Ukraine is unwavering" when meeting him at the White House a day before Trump, shortly after the administration announced its latest US$8 billion military aid package.
"Overall, there is still a very long way to go" before Russia can ease tensions with Western countries, according to Sun Qi, executive director of the Centre for Russia and Central Asia Studies at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.
He argued it will be very difficult to change Washington's "systemic" support for Ukraine in a short period of time.
"In the short term, the relationship between the US and Europe with Russia will depend on whether Putin remains in power," he said.
"Against this backdrop, Russia will face the growing pressure of isolation and marginalisation by the West. In the foreseeable future, Putin will continue to rely on the 'turning to the East' and 'looking to the [Global] South' to break the diplomatic deadlock."
Zhou Chao, a researcher with the Beijing-based think tank Anbound, also thought there was a "limited" possibility that the US would attempt to court Moscow, adding: "Russia may have to rely even more on China both economically and politically".
He said the "Russian military's overall poor performance on the battlefield" and incidents such as the Kremlin's "panicked" response to last year's revolt by the Wagner mercenary group and a recent failed strategic missile launch "have fully exposed Russia's weakening state".
Zhou said that the Ukraine war had changed the "logic" of Russia relations with the West and the country was no longer a "substantial threat" to the West's broader interests.
He also said that although there is some fatigue in Western societies regarding aid to Ukraine, negative or even hostile attitudes toward Russia have not eased while Europe's efforts to reduce dependency on its energy supplies have reduced the effectiveness of one of its key political levers.
In an interview with Sky News Arabia last month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said: "We will never again pin our hopes on the coming of a 'good guy' to the White House or any other Western capital, who will help things straighten out in our country. Eventually we concluded that self-reliance was the best option."
China and Russia declared a "no limits" partnership in early 2022 weeks before Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Although Beijing has since emphasised that their relationship is not a formal alliance and its not "targeting any third party", the alignment between the two neighbours has continued to deepen in the face of growing pressure from the US.
Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed their close relationship during their most recent meeting - the third this year - at the Brics summit in the Russian city of Kazan.
Xi said the "profound and lasting friendship" between the two countries "will not change" and called for deeper "comprehensive strategic coordination", while Putin said Russia fully intended to expand cooperation with China on "all multilateral platforms to ensure global security and promote a fairer world order".
Annual two-way trade between the two countries reached a record US$240 billion in 2023, surpassing the countries' goal of US$200 billion a year earlier than they had anticipated.
China's imports and exports with Russia rose 1.9 per cent from a year earlier in the first eight months of 2024 though lower than the growth rate of China's overall foreign trade, according to Chinese customs data.
The two powers have also stepped up their joint military exercises in recent months and expanded their cooperation in the Arctic.
Kamala Harris, pictured with Volodymyr Zelensky, has been more supportive of Ukraine than Donald Trump. Photo: dpa alt=Kamala Harris, pictured with Volodymyr Zelensky, has been more supportive of Ukraine than Donald Trump. Photo: dpa>
Li Lifan, a Russia specialist at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said Russia and China's mutual support was unlikely to change no matter who becomes the next US president.
He said Russia was likely to receive less economic support if relations with China worsen.
"From my personal perspective, the Russian side has no intention of making adjustments and neither does China," Li, the director of the academy's Shanghai Cooperation Organisation centre said.
Although there was a time when it was reasonable to think Russia might seek to counter Chinese power in East Asia, that possibility has not played out, according to a report published by the Washington-based think tank Centre for a New American Security last month.
"For the foreseeable future, Russia will likely be less materially able and less strategically willing to act as a counterbalance to China," the report said.
But the paper, written by Jacob Stokes, Evan Wright and Nathaniel Schochet, recommended that US policymakers should keep an eye on potential disagreements between the two powers and identify opportunities to drive wedges between them when they arise.
The widely reported deployment of North Korean troops may be one such example. Shi Yihong, an international relations professor at Renmin University at Beijing, recently suggested that China may be "quite uneasy and potentially angry" about the move.
Zhou from Anbound said that China may need to pay attention to the possibility of Russia moving closer to the West in the future, especially if Trump is re-elected.
Zhou said it is important for China to prevent its important transport and energy infrastructure projects in Central Asia from being disrupted by Moscow, suggesting it was responsible for blocking a rail link with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
Instead he said the country could "fully leverage Russia's dependency on China to safeguard and advance its own strategic interests".
Zhang from East China Normal University said it was risky to copy Russia's messaging on the war in Ukraine and China should trust its own judgment on this and other major global issues.
He also said the country should be well prepared for possible changes in the dynamic and "should not be easily bound by either the US or Russia".
