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Newmont Corporation NEM is slated to come up with fourth-quarter 2024 results after the closing bell on Feb. 20.
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NEM beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the trailing four quarters while missed twice. In this timeframe, it delivered an earnings surprise of 22.2%, on average. It posted a negative earnings surprise of 2.4% in the last reported quarter. Newmont is expected to have benefited from higher gold prices and strong production volumes in the fourth quarter.
NEM’s shares have rallied 39.2% over a year compared with the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 50.2% rise.
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Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
What Our Model Unveils for NEM Stock
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Newmont this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earning beat.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for NEM is +6.44%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 95 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: NEM currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
What do NEM’s Revenue Estimates Say?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues for Newmont for the to-be-reported quarter stands at $4,881 million, reflecting a rise of around 23.4% from the year-ago quarter.
Factors to Watch For NEM Stock
Newmont’s fourth-quarter results are likely to have been supported by higher year-over-year production, driven by continued strong performance from its managed Tier 1 portfolio. Production is expected to have been supported by higher grades at Penasquito and Tanami, higher production from Ahafo and strong production from Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo. Our estimate for NEM’s attributable gold production is pegged at 1.8 million ounces for the December quarter, suggesting an 8.1% sequential rise.
The impact of higher gold prices is also expected to reflect on Newmont’s results in the to-be-reported quarter. Higher realized gold prices coupled with improved production are expected to have driven its top line.
Gold has been among the best-performing assets in 2024. Gold prices rallied roughly 27% last year, driven by strong demand from central banks, monetary easing in the United States, global uncertainties and a surge in safe-haven demand thanks to increased tensions in the Middle East and Russia. The strength in gold prices is expected to reflect on NEM’s profitability and cash flows in the fourth quarter. Our estimate for average realized prices of gold for NEM stands at $2,652 per ounce, which indicates a sequential rise of 5.3%.
Newmont is also expected to have benefited from lower unit costs from higher production volumes in the quarter to be reported. NEM, on its third-quarter call, said that it expects fourth-quarter costs applicable to sales to be $1,050 per ounce, with all-in-sustaining costs of $1,475 per ounce, reflecting a decline on a sequential comparison basis.