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Last week, you might have seen that Navitas Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ:NVTS) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.9% to US$6.67 in the past week. Navitas Semiconductor beat expectations by 2.3% with revenues of US$6.7m. It also surprised on the earnings front, with an unexpected statutory profit of US$0.61 per share a nice improvement on the losses that the analysts forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Navitas Semiconductor
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Navitas Semiconductor from eight analysts is for revenues of US$46.3m in 2022 which, if met, would be a major 84% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 22% to US$0.41. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$47.2m and losses of US$0.81 per share in 2022. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a very favorable reduction to losses per share in particular.
The consensus price target fell 30% to US$11.75despite the forecast for smaller losses next year. It looks like the ongoing lack of profitability is starting to weigh on valuations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Navitas Semiconductor at US$22.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$9.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Navitas Semiconductor's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 126% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 57% over the past year. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 9.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Navitas Semiconductor is expected to grow much faster than its industry.