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We think all investors should try to buy and hold high quality multi-year winners. While not every stock performs well, when investors win, they can win big. For example, the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NYSE:NGVC) share price is up a whopping 393% in the last half decade, a handsome return for long term holders. This just goes to show the value creation that some businesses can achieve. It's also up 26% in about a month.
Since the stock has added US$64m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During five years of share price growth, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 31% per year. So the EPS growth rate is rather close to the annualized share price gain of 38% per year. This indicates that investor sentiment towards the company has not changed a great deal. Indeed, it would appear the share price is reacting to the EPS.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Dive deeper into Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's TSR for the last 5 years was 571%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 199% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 46% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. If you would like to research Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.