Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Bullish Traders Still Waiting for the Heat to Return
August natural gas futures posted a volatile two-sided trade on Monday. The market initially gapped sharply lower before filling in the gap and trading marginally higher at one point in the session. After the move failed to attract enough buyers to sustain the rally, the market ended up settling slightly above its low.
Traders could have been reacting to short-term oversold conditions, the light pre-holiday volume, a new weather forecast or the news that President Trump was going to promote U.S. natural gas exports.
Tuesday July 4 is a U.S. bank holiday so trading is expected to be limited since the market closes early.
Natgasweather.com says that between July 3 and July 9, “Comfortable conditions will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast to open the week with highs of upper 60s and 70s. However, temperatures of upper 80s to 100s will expand to cover most of the rest of the country mid-week for strong national demand as high pressure dominates besides a weak weather system with thunderstorms trapped under the middle of the ridge.”
“Warming will also briefly push into the Great Lakes and NE before cooling back off Friday to Monday as a new weather system arrives.”
“Overall, natural gas demand will be increasing to high.”
Bullish traders are going to have a hard time taking on large positions as long as the weather forecasts leave out “hot” and “lingering”. Investors need temperatures to get hot and stay hot. Periodic bursts of heat are going to fuel upside spikes in the market, but nothing sustainable.
Currently, August natural gas futures are trading inside the $2.875 to $3.122 range. Its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone is $2.988 to $3.015. Trading below this zone will give the market a strong downside bias.
Technically, the market is going to have to overcome $3.015 and sustain the move in order to give it a shot at breaking out over a pair of tops at $3.122 and $3.127. This is only going to happen if the weather guys put “lingering heat” in the forecast.
Late Monday, it was announced that President Trump will use fast-growing supplies of natural gas as a political tool when he meets in Warsaw on Thursday with leaders of a dozen countries that are captive to Russia for their energy needs.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire