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NATO braces for 'conflict that can present itself at any time'
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Plans will require better readiness and improved logistics
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Leaders expected to take decision at Vilnius summit in July
By Sabine Siebold
BRUSSELS, May 18 (Reuters) - NATO will step back to the future at its Vilnius summit in July, with leaders set to approve thousands of pages of secret military plans that will detail for the first time since the Cold War how the alliance would respond to a Russian attack.
The move signifies a fundamental shift - NATO had seen no need to draw up large-scale defence plans for decades, as it fought smaller wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and felt certain post-Soviet Russia no longer posed an existential threat.
But with Europe's bloodiest war since 1945 raging just beyond its borders in Ukraine, the alliance is now warning that it must have all planning in place well before a conflict with a peer adversary such as Moscow might erupt.
"The fundamental difference between crisis management and collective defence is this: It is not we but our adversary who determines the timeline," said Admiral Rob Bauer, one of NATO's top military officials. "We have to prepare for the fact that conflict can present itself at any time."
By outlining what it calls its regional plans, NATO will also give nations guidance on how to upgrade their forces and logistics.
"Allies will know exactly what forces and capabilities are needed, including where, what and how to deploy," said NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg about the highly classified documents that will, as in the Cold War, assign certain troops to the defence of certain regions.
This formalises a process triggered by Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, which prompted Western allies for the first time to deploy combat troops to the east, with Britain, Canada and Germany each taking the lead in one of the Baltic states.
NOT A COLD WAR RE-RUN
But while many features resemble NATO's military line-up before 1990, some crucial factors have changed for an alliance that has since then expanded some 1,000 km (600 miles) to the east and grown from around a dozen to 31 members.
Finland's accession last month has alone doubled NATO's border with Russia to some 2,500 km, forcing a more flexible approach to deployments than in the past, when Germany was seen as the main battlezone.
Also, the alliance is no longer preparing to fight a large-scale nuclear war against Moscow and its allies - most of whom are now NATO members - said Ian Hope, historian at NATO's Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE).