Interactive Buyside Weekly Thoughts for Market Realist
Drilling down a bit into the recent China 2Q GDP number, a few things stand out:
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The real 7.5% headline rate was in line with expectations, but over the past month, estimates had fallen from 7.8% consensus
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First half of year growth was 7.6%, so chatter is starting up discussing possibility of China missing its full year 7.5% estimate (China hasn’t missed a full year GDP estimate in 15 years)
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Contribution of gross capital formation rebounded sharply as a percent of GDP (on a sequential and year-over-year basis) to offset net export decline
Below, we laid out the past ten years of quarterly nominal GDP growth for China, just to have a reference point as to the trends and levels of the historical versus recent GDP prints. In addition, we included the contributors of Chinese GDP in the second table.
(Read more: China’s wage inflation: Bad news for corporate profits and banks)
| List of China’s Quarterly Nominal GDP and Growth (in 100 million of CNY) | |||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 (Read more: Why China triggered harmful emerging market outflows) | Q4 | FY Growth % | |||||
| Year | GDP | Growth % | GDP | Growth % | GDP (Read more: Analysis: Why China’s export growth rates are slowing) | Growth % | GDP | Growth % | |
| 2013 | 118,855 | 9.6 | 8.0 | ||||||
| 2012 | 108,486 | 11.3 | 119,549 | 9.7 | 125,669 | 8.5 | 165,599 | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| 2011 | 97,480 | 18.0 | 109,009 | 18.1 | 115,857 | 18.5 | 150,759 | 17.0 | 17.8 |
| 2010 | 82,613 | 18.3 | 92,265 | 17.7 | 97,748 | 17.6 | 128,886 | 17.6 | 17.8 |
| 2009 | 69,817 | 5.3 | 78,387 | 5.7 | 83,100 | 8.6 | 109,599 | 13.0 | 8.6 |
| 2008 | 66,284 | 21.1 | 74,194 | 21.2 | 76,548 | 19.4 | 97,019 | 13.2 | 18.1 |
| 2007 | 54,756 | 20.8 | 61,243 | 22.2 | 64,102 | 23.5 | 85,709 | 24.3 | 22.9 |
| 2006 | 45,316 | 15.8 | 50,113 | 17.1 | 51,913 | 16.0 | 68,973 | 18.3 | 17.0 |
| 2005 | 39,117 | 17.0 | 42,795 | 15.7 | 44,744 | 13.1 | 58,280 | 16.8 | 15.7 |
| 2004 | 33,421 | 15.8 | 36,985 | 19.3 | 39,562 | 18.2 | 49,911 | 17.5 | 17.7 |
| 2003 | 28,862 | 13.7 | 31,007 | 10.9 | 33,460 | 12.6 | 42,494 | 14.0 | 12.9 |
Source: China NBS Quarterly Data
2012 GDP by industry
CNY was converted using the 6.19 CNY/USD exchange rate as of April 12, 2013.
| Industry | 2012 GDP Value ($ billions) | % of Total GDP |
| Industry & Manufacturing | 3,229 | 38.5% |
| Other | 1,427 | 17.0% |
| Farming, Forestry, Animal/Fishery | 846 | 10.1% |
| Wholesale & Retail Trade | 812 | 9.7% |
| Construction | 573 | 6.8% |
| Real Estate | 469 | 5.6% |
| Financial Intermediation | 462 | 5.5% |
| Transport, Storage & Postal | 403 | 4.8% |
| Hotel & Catering Services | 169 | 2.0% |
| Total | 8,389 | 100.0% |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China