(Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump’s planned tariffs on auto imports will hurt carmakers around the world and push up prices for US consumers. Among the many losers, one winner stands out: Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc.
The electric vehicle maker has large factories in California and Texas that churn out all the cars it sells in the US, insulating it to a greater degree from Trump’s new levies on auto imports and key components. Major rivals from South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Co. to Germany’s Volkswagen AG and America’s own General Motors Co. meanwhile will soon face sharply higher costs.
“There are very few winners,” Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting for AutoForecast Solutions, said in a telephone interview. “Consumers will be losers because they will have reduced choice and higher prices.”
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Tesla is the “least exposed” to the new duties due to its domestic manufacturing operations, CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson wrote in an analysis this week. Tesla itself has been boasting this week about its US credentials, saying in a post on X that its models “are the most American-made cars.”
Still, Musk says that Tesla won’t go entirely unscathed. In an X post on Wednesday, he described the tariffs as having a “significant” impact on the company. In a later X post to another user, Musk added that the tariffs will have a “not trivial” effect on the prices of the imported car parts Tesla uses.
Between 60% and 75% of the components Tesla uses are manufactured in the US, depending on the model, according to a 2024 filing by the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, with the majority of the remaining parts sourced from Mexico. But with the value of the imported parts unclear, the financial impact on Tesla is unknown.
Ford Motor Co. could also face a less-severe impact than some rivals, with about 80% of the cars it sells in the US being built domestically.
The divide showed in the reaction from investors. Tesla surged 5.7% to $287.49 as of 10:47 a.m. Thursday in New York, leading the Nasdaq 100 index of large non-financial companies. Ford fell 3.1%, GM dropped 7.4% and Stellantis NV lost 2.5%.
Starting next week, the new 25% tariffs will apply to all imported passenger vehicles and light trucks, as well as key parts like engines, transmissions and electrical components, on top of any duties already in effect. The levies will only apply to the non-US share of vehicles and parts imported under a free-trade agreement with Canada and Mexico.
That stands to soften the blow for vehicles whose supply lines zig-zag across the continent. Tariffs on parts from Canada and Mexico that comply with the trade deal also won’t take effect until the US sets up a process to collect those levies.
The US neighbors could use that window to try to stave off full implementation, even if it’s a long shot.
The move is nonetheless a broadside against the continent’s free-trade agreement that Trump renegotiated during his first term in office that has given rise to a closely integrated supply chain spanning North America. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called the tariffs a “direct attack.”
Foreign brands heavily reliant on imported vehicles will face the most pressure. South Korea’s Hyundai risks being among the hardest hit. Although the carmaker and its affiliate Kia have plants in Alabama and Georgia — and announced a $21 billion US expansion plan this week — it imported more than a million vehicles to the US last year, accounting for more than half of its sales in the country, according to figures from Global Data.
Hyundai “remains committed to the long-term growth of the US automotive industry through localized production and innovation,” the company said in a statement, noting it employs 570,000 people in the US.
Hyundai and Kia may have to pay as much as 10 trillion won ($7 billion) every year for tariffs to the US if the 25% tariffs are executed, according to Hyuk Jin Yoon, Seoul-based analyst at SK Securities Co. That accounts for nearly 40% of total operating profit that the two carmakers earned in 2024.
And despite having four assembly plants spread across Kentucky, Indiana, Mississippi and Texas, plus engine plants in West Virginia and Alabama, Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s biggest automaker, imports about half of what it sells in the US. A representative of Toyota said that the company’s Mexico operations are 100% compliant with the USMCA free-trade agreement.
The tariffs could reduce Toyota’s estimated operating profit for the 2026 fiscal year by 6%, according to Goldman Sachs Japan analysts including Kota Yuzawa. Embattled Nissan Motor Co. is likely to be the hardest hit among major Japanese automakers, according to their note, with its estimated operating profit likely to be reduced by 56%.
Subaru Corp. is considering how to minimize the impact of the tariffs, a company spokesperson said Thursday, without elaborating on specific measures it’s looking at. Subaru could see its 2026 operating profit decline 23%, according to the Goldman Sachs note.
Detroit’s carmakers weren’t spared, either. GM imports some Chevrolet Silverado pickup trucks from plants in Mexico and Canada, the entry-level Chevy Trax compact SUV from South Korea and its family car, the Chevrolet Equinox crossover SUV. Last year GM sold more than 200,000 each of the Equinox and Trax, which are among its cheapest vehicles. The automaker also makes electric versions of the Equinox and Blazer in Mexico.
Stellantis makes the Jeep Compass and Wagoneer S SUVs in Mexico. The company imports its Chrysler Pacifica minivans from Canada and compact Dodge Hornet and Fiat 500 from Italy.
And even though Ford is more US-reliant than its cross-town rivals, it faces pain of its own. The carmaker builds its entry-level Maverick small pickup in Mexico as well as the Bronco Sport compact SUV and Mustang Mach-E electric vehicle.
Trump on Wednesday insisted that there’s no conflict of interest despite the Tesla chief executive’s prominent role in the administration.
“He’s never asked me for a favor in business whatsoever,” Trump said at an Oval Office event on Wednesday as he signed the proclamation putting the auto tariffs in place.
--With assistance from Keith Naughton, Heejin Kim, Kara Carlson, Amy Stillman, Linda Lew and Brandon Harden.
