An oil pumpjack is seen in a field on April 8 in Nolan, Texas. - Brandon Bell/Getty Images
America’s oil industry is facing immense pressure during Trump 2.0.
Even though President Donald Trump vowed to usher in a period of American energy dominance, the administration’s trade war and OPEC’s production hikes have cast a shadow over the oil patch.
In fact, once-gangbusters US oil production growth is now at risk of grinding to a halt — or even going in reverse.
Hurt by weakening demand and depressed prices, US oil output is now expected to shrink in 2026, S&P Global Commodity Insights projected on Monday. S&P estimates that US oil production will dip to 13.3 million barrels per day in 2026, a 130,000-barrel decline from its 2025 forecast.
It would be just the second time in the past decade that US production fell. The only other time was during the Covid-19 crash, when the world economy ground to a halt and oil prices briefly dropped below zero.
“The US shale oil sector is quite gloomy. They’re battening down the hatches for a storm,” said Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group.
Diamondback Energy told shareholders last week that US onshore oil production has likely peaked and will start to drop due to plunging prices.
“We believe we are at a tipping point for US oil production at current commodity prices,” Diamondback CEO Travis Stice said in a shareholder letter.
Of course, the silver lining for American consumers is that prices at the pump are very much under control. In fact, some analysts expect gas prices will trend even lower in the coming months, an outcome that could help offset potential sticker shock caused by the trade war.
Sky-high tariffs have caused recession fears that have driven oil prices lower. Crude has also been hit by a surprisingly large increase in production from OPEC and its allies.
Trump has repeatedly called for OPEC to ramp up supply, in part to drive down inflation and pile pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine.
The ironic part of the gloom and doom in oil country is that Trump’s 2024 campaign was backed enthusiastically by the fossil fuels industry, and the president vowed to send oil production skyrocketing.
McNally, a former White House energy advisor to President George W. Bush, told CNN on Friday that the oil industry “dodged a bullet” because a Trump loss would have meant tougher regulation and less leasing of federal lands and waters.
But cutting red tape and green-lighting permits can’t make up for plunging prices in the short term.
“While the long-term outlook from regulatory and cost perspective is improving vastly over what it would have been had Trump lost,” McNally said, “the president’s priority for lower oil prices is hurting the industry. That’s just true.”
Even though the United States is the world’s biggest oil producer, it’s also most sensitive to price drops. US crude plunged 20% between Trump’s tariff announcement on “Liberation Day” (April 2) and May 5, when it fell to a four-year low of $57.13 a barrel.
Crude has bounced back above $60 but remains at or below the level many drillers require to make money.
In late March, oil executives surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas expressed alarm about the trade war.
“The administration’s chaos is a disaster for the commodity markets,” one exploration and production executive said. “’Drill, baby, drill’ is nothing short of a myth and populist rallying cry. Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn’t have a clear goal. We want more stability.”
McNally expects US oil prices to plunge into the low- to mid-$40s from late summer and into the fall, causing production growth to grind to a halt. He said if prices fall even further, US oil production “could easily” drop in 2026.
“It’s certainly on the table,” McNally said.
S&P executives warned on Monday that “extreme uncertainty about the future of US trade” and a looming supply surplus are expected to “hobble” US oil production later this year and next.
The firm sharply cut its global oil demand growth outlook for 2025 from 1.25 million barrels per day before the April 2 tariff announcement to 750,000 barrels per day now.
“The Trump administration is creating a regulatory environment that can facilitate oil and gas activity,” said Jim Burkhard, vice president and global head of crude oil research at S&P Global Commodity Insights. “But ultimately, it is the level of oil prices that is the biggest factor in driving US production up or down.”
Cheap oil and weakening production could ultimately cost jobs in the oil patch or even cause financial stress for drillers.
In 2020, when oil prices plunged and production crashed, the oil industry experienced a spike in bankruptcies and layoffs.
However, the oil industry looks more resilient today because of a wave of consolidation in which Big Oil companies with powerful balance sheets gobbled up smaller players.
In any case, the trouble in the oil world is a windfall for many consumers filling up their gas tanks.
The national average price for regular gas fell to $3.15 a gallon on Friday, according to AAA. That’s down sharply from $3.64 a gallon at this point last year and a far cry from the June 2022 record high of $5.02 a gallon.
Cheaper gas prices could help offset potential tariff-driven price increases elsewhere. And they have helped lower the US inflation rate.
Veteran oil analyst Tom Kloza expects gas prices will continue to move lower.
“It’s going to be a cheap summer,” Kloza said.
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