MSFT Stock: It’s Not Just AI That Makes Microsoft a Long-Term Buy

Louis Navellier and the InvestorPlace Research Staff

Wed, Jun 21, 2023, 4:10 AM 4 min read

A Tech Rebound Will Likely Help MSFT Stock Add to its Recent Gains

The end of the pandemic, plus the economic slowdown caused by high inflation and rising interest rates, had a serious impact on the performance of tech companies, Microsoft included.

In the case of this company, revenue growth screeched to a halt, and earnings took a moderate dip, as demand from both consumers and businesses softened.

While exuberance over AI has helped MSFT stock and many of its peers to bounce back, this slowdown is only easing. However, there is a silver lining.

Shares moved higher primarily on rising hopes that Microsoft’s integration of ChatGPT will put the company back into high-growth mode.

A rebound in demand for the tech sector as a whole has only been partially priced-in. As a result, when demand for Microsoft’s non-AI consumer and business offerings bounces back fully, expect a big jump for the company’s earnings.

This earnings rebound, boosted further from the company’s initial AI monetization efforts, along with its aggressive cost reduction efforts, will likely lead to a big jump in profitability during the upcoming fiscal year (ending June 2024.). This, in turn, could help justify a further lift higher for the stock.

Another Long-Term Non-AI Growth Catalyst

Currently, the top end of sell-side forecasts for MSFT stock earnings during FY2024 come in at around $11.52 per share. This would represent a big earnings jump compared to the preceding twelve months. It would also represent the company’s most profitable year ever.

However, an earnings boost in FY2024 may end up being just the start of a multi-year growth resurgence. As I pointed out recently, earnings forecasts for further down the road call for even higher levels of profitability.

For instance, during FY2025, estimates call for earnings of $13.59 per share, and earnings per share of $15 possibility within reach by FY2026.

AI will of course be a big driver of this stunning growth re-acceleration, yet again, it’s not the only factor. Alongside a rebound in tech demand, there’s another growth catalyst in play with Microsoft. That would be the potential upside stemming from the company’s still-pending acquisition of Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI).

There’s a good reason Microsoft has been willing to not only pay up, but contend with continued regulatory scrutiny about the proposed transaction. Possible growth synergies, for one. Buying ATVI could also give Microsoft a competitive edge against rivals in the metaverse space.

The Verdict

Following MSFT’s big jump in price since January, shares today trade for around 37.1 times trailing twelve month earnings. With this, I can understand why some more valuation-conscious investors are hesitant to buy.

In their view, after the big run-up, the stock could deliver more middling returns as growth catches up to valuation. Yet while gains for the stocks from here could come in a more gradual pace, don’t assume this means Microsoft is no longer a worthy opportunity.

Thanks to not only the AI megatrend, but also factors like the tech recovery, and Microsoft’s soon-to-be-growing presence in video gaming/the metaverse, shares could continue to deliver strong returns as the company keeps growing in terms of revenue and profitability.

With this, feel free to add MSFT stock to your portfolio, whether now, or any near-term weakness.

MSFT stock earns a B rating in Portfolio Grader.

On the date of publication, Louis Navellier had a long position in MSFT. Louis Navellier did not have (either directly or indirectly) any other positions in the securities mentioned in this article.

The InvestorPlace Research Staff member primarily responsible for this article did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.

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