MP Materials MP and Idaho Strategic Resources IDR are two prominent players in the U.S. critical minerals sector. These companies are expected to play a key role in revitalizing the United States’ critical mineral independence and strengthening national security through domestic resource development. MP Materials is the United States; only fully integrated rare earth producer with capabilities spanning the entire supply chain, from mining and processing to advanced metallization and magnet manufacturing. The Las Vegas, NV-based company has a market capitalization of $3.22 billion.
Coeur d'Alene, ID-based Idaho Strategic Resources is a gold producer which also owns the largest rare earth elements (REE) land package in the United States and the largest known concentration of thorium in the country. The company has a market capitalization of around $190 million.
REEs are critical inputs across many existing and emerging clean-tech applications, including electric vehicles and wind turbines, as well as robotics, drones and defense applications. The market is currently dominated by China, and there has been an increasing focus on developing domestic REE capabilities in the United States.
For investors considering this sector to capitalize on future growth, the main question is which stock you should put your bets on. To make an informed decision, let us analyze their fundamentals, growth potential and key challenges.
The Case for MP Materials
MP is the largest producer of rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere. The company owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility, which is the only rare earth mining and processing site of scale in North America. The company’s facility in Fort Worth, Texas, has commenced commercial production of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) metal and trial production of automotive-grade, sintered neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets. poised to produce approximately 1,000 metric tons of finished NdFeB magnets per year, with a gradual production ramp beginning in late 2025.
MP Materials’ first-quarter 2025 revenues rose 25% year over year to $60.8 million. The company reported record (neodymium and praseodymium) NdPr production of 563 metric tons in the quarter, skyrocketing 330% from the year-ago quarter. This marked the second-highest quarterly output of rare earth oxides (REO). Sales volumes soared 246% year over year to 464 metric tons. The Materials Segment’s revenues increased 14% to $55.6 million in the quarter as higher sales volumes were offset by a 16% decline in realized pricing.
REO production increased 10% year over year to 12,213 metric tons on higher recoveries from the continued implementation of Upstream 60K optimizations. Due to the company’s ramp-up in midstream operations, a major part of the REO production was used to produce separated rare earth products rather than being sold as rare earth concentrate. Sales volumes thus plunged 33%, resulting in a $10-million decline in rare earth concentrate revenues.
MP Materials reported a loss of 12 cents per share, wider than the year-ago quarter’s loss of 4 cents on higher production costs. Higher selling, general and administrative expenses attributed to higher employee headcounts to support downstream expansion, as well as elevated interest expenses, impacted earnings.
On April 17, 2025, MP Materials halted rare earth concentrate shipments to China in response to Chinese tariffs and export controls, thereby cutting off a revenue stream. Historically, through its Materials segment, the company sold the majority of its rare earth concentrate to Shenghe under the terms of the Offtake Agreement. This sale accounted for approximately 50% of MP Materials’ revenues in the first quarter of 2025 and 70% of total revenues in 2024. While the Offtake Agreement with Shenghe remains active through January 2026, future shipments depend on policy changes.
Meanwhile, MP is focusing on ramping up production and selling separated rare earth products to markets outside China, including Japan and South Korea. As the company continues to produce and sell more separated products at Mountain Pass, it will lead to higher costs in 2025. This reflects higher production costs associated with separated rare earth products compared with rare earth concentrate. Its ramp-up of output of magnetic precursor products will also lead to higher costs.
MP Materials recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Saudi Arabian mining company Maaden to explore and develop a fully integrated, end-to-end rare earth supply chain in Saudi Arabia.
As of Dec. 31, 2024, MP Materials’ total proven and probable reserves were estimated at 2.04 million short tons of REO contained in 29.69 million short tons of ore at Mountain Pass, with an average ore grade of 5.97%. Based on this, combined with the production ramp-up of its midstream operations, the estimated mine life is 29 years. MP expects to extend this lifespan through further exploration and enhanced processing, which could lead to revisions in reserve estimates over time.
The Case for Idaho Strategic Resources
The company’s gold properties include the Golden Chest Mine (currently in production), the New Jersey Mill (majority ownership interest), the Eastern Star exploration property and other less advanced properties.
The Golden Chest Gold Mine lies within the Murray Gold Belt. Idaho Strategic has consolidated many historic gold mines and prospects within the belt to form an impressive land package consisting of 1,500 acres of patented mining claims and 5,800 acres of unpatented claims — the largest private land position in the area.
The company has three REE exploration properties in Idaho — Lemhi Pass, Diamond Creek and Mineral Hill. IDR has conducted numerous exploration programs on its REE properties, which include drilling, trenching, sampling and mapping certain areas within its 19,090-acre landholdings. The company plans for its busiest exploration season to date in 2025, targeting REE and thorium at its properties.
Idaho Strategic Resources’ first-quarter 2025 revenues rose 23% year over year to $7.3 million, its highest quarterly revenues on record. Top-line growth was driven by a 44.7% increase in average realized gold prices, which helped offset a 6.9% decline in gold production to 2,900 ounces for the quarter. However, earnings of 12 cents per share marked a 29% year-over-year decline.
The downfall was attributed to exploration costs (related to exploration drilling at the Golden Chest mine) of $1.37 million in the quarter, significantly higher than $0.27 million in the year-ago quarter. All-in-sustaining costs per ounce increased 22% to $1,430.90, driven by higher exploration costs.
Idaho Strategic Resources expects exploration spending to remain elevated, or even increase, through the rest of 2025 as it continues to develop the Golden Chest mine and other properties.
The company recently signed a MoU with Clean Core Thorium Energy, Inc. (“CCTE”) to evaluate the feasibility of thorium mining, processing and advancing a “Made in America” supply chain for CCTE’s ANEEL fuel — an advanced nuclear fuel comprised of thorium and high assay low-enriched uranium for use in pressurized heavy water reactors.
IDR’s improved cash flow and low debt levels allow the company to invest in existing mines while exploring and developing gold and REE prospects. This year, the company plans to execute its largest exploration program ever at the Golden Chest Mine while initiating additional exploration in the broader Murray Gold Belt. It is completing a phase 1 drill program at Eastern Star and finalizing a large-scale radiometrics and soil sampling program at its Lemhi Pass project, to name a few.
How Do Estimates Compare for MP & IDR?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ fiscal 2025 earnings is pegged at a loss of 40 cents. The estimate has moved down to a loss of 40 cents from the loss of 12 cents mentioned 60 days ago. The company reported a loss of 44 cents in fiscal 2024.
The estimate for fiscal 2026 for MP Materials is pegged at 16 cents, suggesting a return to profitability for the company. The estimate has moved south over the past 60 days.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Idaho Strategic’s fiscal 2025 earnings is at 52 cents, indicating a year-over-year decline of 22.4%. The 2026 estimate implies no year-over-year changes.
While the estimate for IDR’s fiscal 2025 has moved down in the past 60 days, the same for fiscal 2026 has been unchanged.
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(Find the latest earnings estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
MP & IDR: Price Performance & Valuation
So far this year, the MP Materials stock has gained 26.2% compared with Idaho Strategic’s 32.5% rise. Notably, the IDR stock has gained on the rally in gold prices seen this year.
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MP Materials is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 9.85X. Meanwhile, Idaho Strategic is trading lower at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 6.55X.
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MP Materials or Idaho Strategic: Which Stock is the Better Buy?
IDR is the only publicly traded company providing investors exposure to gold production, and REE exploration and development in one company. However, earnings will remain impacted in the near term due to higher exploration costs, driven by its ongoing investment in the Golden Chest and other properties.
MP has been reporting upbeat production numbers and making investments in boosting production capacity. Despite near-term earnings pressure, the company remains a good investment choice considering that it is the only fully integrated rare earth producer with capabilities spanning the entire supply chain from mining to processing, and is poised well to gain from strong demand. MP currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), while IDR has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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