(Mario Anzuoni/Reuters)
For a second year in a row, markets are obsessed with when the Federal Reserve will raise rates.
No one knows whether the announcement will come after the meeting on September 21, November 2 or December 14, or at another time.
On Friday, the final jobs report before the Fed's upcoming meeting was "fairly uneventful" and not good enough to prompt a rate hike, Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust, told Business Insider.
The US economy added 151,000 jobs in August. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9%, and average hourly earnings growth slipped one-tenth to 0.1% for the month. The pace of job creation slowed down after two strong months, although there are seasonal-adjustment issues that have plagued the initial August jobs reports every year since 2010.
Many other people agree with Tannenbaum. Ethan Harris, chief economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, stood by his call for a December rate hike in a note after the jobs report. Also, traders who bet on future interest rates with fed fund futures pared their wagers for September, and raised those for December with a 60.3% probability.
But Goldman Sachs' chief economist, Jan Hatzius, told CNBC that September is "a little more likely than not" after the jobs report.
The timing remains uncertain. Most economists have ruled out the Fed's November meeting because of the election.
Jeff Kleintop, chief global-investment strategist at Charles Schwab, thinks December is likely. And he's identified a few risks that could put the Fed on hold into 2017.
The most recent big global shock to markets was the UK's referendum in June that ended with a vote to leave the European Union.
Markets may soon panic about another EU member, this time, Italy.
The country is set to vote this fall on constitutional reform. An affirmative vote would make it easier to pass laws because the Senate would have less control.
Kleintop said recent polling results are starting to go in the "no" direction, which could prompt Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to resign and raise concern about whether another country will leave the EU down the road.
Italy's economic growth has trailed EU peers like Germany and France, prompting questions about how much it benefits from membership. And while the upcoming vote is not exactly like the UK's "remain" or "leave" referendum, it could be seen as the start of a snowball in that direction.
Global purchasing manager's indexes reflected a slowdown in manufacturing in August.
The Institute of Supply Management's PMI showed that US manufacturing contracted in August for the first time since February; the outsized services sector has not entered contraction since 2010.