Morgan Stanley: Self-driving cars and apps like Uber could boost booze industry

In 2014, alcohol played a role a third of motor-vehicle deaths in the US. However, ride-hailing services like Uber and so-called self-driving cars could reduce the number of DUI accidents, fatalities and arrests, according to new research from Morgan Stanley.

And ride-sharing services and autonomous vehicles could also potentially be a boon for the alcohol industry — including bars and restaurants that serve alcohol, according to the research led by Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas.

The alcoholic beverage industry is already huge; the global drinking population right now is 2.1 billion while the total drinks consumed per year is 1.1 trillion. Value per drink is $1.33, which all totals a whopping $1.5 trillion worth of drinks consumed per year. But according to the new report, the industry might have the potential to grow even more with shared and autonomous vehicles.

“Shared and autonomous vehicle technology help address the mutual exclusivity of drinking and driving in a way that can significantly enhance the growth rate of the alcohol market and on-trade sales at restaurants,” the Morgan Stanley study notes.

While the average person has 542 drinks per year, autonomous cars and ride-hailing apps could bring that number up to an additional 52 drinks, according to the Morgan Stanley report. With each drink valued at $2.32, that could create $98 billion in revenue. (Morgan Stanley placed a higher value on drinks resulting from autonomous or shared vehicles, as those drinks would be consumed in bars or restaurants rather than at home.)

The restaurants that stand to benefit include those whose alcohol sales account for 10% to 20% of revenue, including BJ’s Restaurants, (BJRI), Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), and Brinker International (EAT), which owns Chili’s among other big chains.

Morgan Stanley is not the first to suggest ride-hailing apps like Uber or Lyft could spur alcohol sales. In 2015, the Los Angeles Times wrote that “Uber lets you drink more.” That story quoted Francois Renaud, managing partner at restaurant called Terrine, who called ride-hailing apps “a game-changer.”

“The difference is in the second bottle of wine ordered,” he told the LA Times.

Of course, the notion that autonomous vehicles, aka self-driving cars, could spur more drinking is more controversial. While so-called self-driving cars are still in their infancy, it’s generally assumed that drivers must be responsible for their vehicles even if they’re on “autopilot” mode.

Tesla itself — which is a pioneer in this area — has noted that drivers who use its autopilot feature “need to maintain control and responsibility for your vehicle.” It’s hard to do that while drunk.