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Rating Action: Moody's affirms seven and downgrades five classes of MSBAM 2013-C11
Global Credit Research - 11 Jan 2021
Approximately $577.8 million of structured securities affected
New York, January 11, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") has affirmed the ratings on seven classes and downgraded the ratings on five classes in Morgan Stanley Bank of America Merrill Lynch Trust 2013-C11 ("MSBAM 2013-C11"), Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates as follows:
Cl. A-AB, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on September 29, 2020 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-3, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on September 29, 2020 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-4, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on September 29, 2020 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-S, Downgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on September 29, 2020 Downgraded to Aa2 (sf)
Cl. B, Downgraded to B3 (sf); previously on September 29, 2020 Downgraded to Ba1 (sf)
Cl. C, Downgraded to Caa3 (sf); previously on September 29, 2020 Downgraded to Caa1 (sf)
Cl. D, Downgraded to C (sf); previously on September 29, 2020 Downgraded to Caa3 (sf)
Cl. E, Affirmed C (sf); previously on September 29, 2020 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. F, Affirmed C (sf); previously on September 29, 2020 Affirmed C (sf)
Cl. G, Affirmed C (sf); previously on September 29, 2020 Affirmed C (sf)
Cl. X-A*, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on September 29, 2020 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
Cl. PST**, Downgraded to B3 (sf); previously on September 29, 2020 Downgraded to B1 (sf)
* Reflects interest-only class
** Reflects exchangeable class
RATINGS RATIONALE
The ratings on three P&I classes were affirmed due the significant credit support and because the transaction's key metrics, including Moody's loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, Moody's stressed debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) and the transaction's Herfindahl Index (Herf), are within acceptable ranges. The ratings on Classes E, F and G were affirmed because the ratings are consistent with Moody's expected loss plus realized losses. Class G has already experienced a 50% loss from a previously liquidated loan.
The ratings on four P&I classes, Class A-S, Class B, Class C and Class D were downgraded due to higher anticipated losses and increased interest shortfall risks driven by the significant exposure to specially serviced loans, which are primarily secured by regional mall and hotel loans. Specially serviced loans represent nearly 40% of the pool, of which three largest, representing 39%, are secured by two regional malls and one hotel property in which the loan is either more than 90 days delinquent or the borrower has already indicated plans to transfer the loan to the trust. The largest three specially serviced loans include Westfield Countryside (17% of pool), The Mall at Tuttle Crossing (15%) and Marriott Chicago River North Hotel (8%), all of which were already experiencing declining performance prior to 2020. Appraisal reductions have not yet been recognized on the three largest specially serviced loans; therefore Moody's anticipates interest shortfalls may increase materially. In aggregate, three loans (for a combined 40% of the pooled balance) are secured by regional malls, including Southdale Center (9% of the pool), which has also experienced declines in NOI prior to 2020. Furthermore, the credit support of these four classes have previously deteriorated due to the significant losses from the previously liquidated Matrix Corporate Center loan.
The rating on the IO class was affirmed based on the credit quality of the referenced classes.
The rating on Class PST was downgraded due to a decline in credit quality of the referenced exchangeable classes.
The coronavirus outbreak, the government measures put in place to contain it, and the weak global economic outlook continue to disrupt economies and credit markets across sectors and regions. Our analysis has considered the effect on the performance of commercial real estate from the current weak US economic activity and a gradual recovery for the coming months. Although an economic recovery is underway, it is tenuous and its continuation will be closely tied to containment of the virus. As a result, the degree of uncertainty around our forecasts is unusually high. Stress on commercial real estate properties will be most directly stemming from declines in hotel occupancies (particularly related to conference or other group attendance) and declines in foot traffic and sales for non-essential items at retail properties. We regard the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under our ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health and safety.
Moody's rating action reflects a base expected loss of 19.2% of the current pooled balance, compared to 9.3% at Moody's last review. Moody's base expected loss plus realized losses is now 19.8% of the original pooled balance, compared to 14.1% at the last review. Moody's provides a current list of base expected losses for conduit and fusion CMBS transactions on moodys.com at http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF215255.
FACTORS THAT WOULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. Performance that falls outside the given range can indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had previously expected.
Factors that could lead to an upgrade of the ratings include a significant amount of loan paydowns or amortization, an increase in the pool's share of defeasance or an improvement in pool performance.
Factors that could lead to a downgrade of the ratings include a decline in the performance of the pool, loan concentration, an increase in realized and expected losses from specially serviced and troubled loans or interest shortfalls.
METHODOLOGY UNDERLYING THE RATING ACTION
The methodologies used in rating all classes except exchangeable classes and interest-only classes were "Moody's Approach to Rating Large Loan and Single Asset/Single Borrower CMBS" published in September 2020 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_1190579 and "Approach to Rating US and Canadian Conduit/Fusion CMBS" published in September 2020 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_1244778. The principal methodology used in rating exchangeable classes was "Moody's Approach to Rating Repackaged Securities" published in June 2020 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_1230078. The methodologies used in rating interest-only classes were "Moody's Approach to Rating Large Loan and Single Asset/Single Borrower CMBS" published in September 2020 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_1190579, "Approach to Rating US and Canadian Conduit/Fusion CMBS" published in September 2020 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_1244778 and "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only (IO) Securities" published in February 2019 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_1111179. Please see the list of ratings at the top of this announcement to identify which classes are interest-only (indicated by the *) and exchangeable classes (indicated by the **). Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
DEAL PERFORMANCE
As of the December 17, 2020 distribution date, the transaction's aggregate certificate balance has decreased by 33% to $577.8 million from $856.3 million at securitization. The certificates are collateralized by 30 mortgage loans ranging in size from less than 1% to 17% of the pool, with the top ten loans (excluding defeasance) constituting 72% of the pool. Five loans, constituting 12% of the pool, have defeased and are secured by US government securities.
Moody's uses a variation of Herf to measure the diversity of loan sizes, where a higher number represents greater diversity. Loan concentration has an important bearing on potential rating volatility, including the risk of multiple notch downgrades under adverse circumstances. The credit neutral Herf score is 40. The pool has a Herf of 10, the same as at Moody's last review.
As of the December 2020 remittance report, loans representing 60% were current or within their grace period on their debt service payments and 40% were more than 90 days delinquent.
Ten loans, constituting 27% of the pool, are on the master servicer's watchlist, of which two loans, representing 4% of the pool, indicate the borrower has requested relief in relation to coronavirus impact on the property. The watchlist includes loans that meet certain portfolio review guidelines established as part of the CRE Finance Council (CREFC) monthly reporting package. As part of Moody's ongoing monitoring of a transaction, the agency reviews the watchlist to assess which loans have material issues that could affect performance.
One loan, the Matrix Corporate Center loan, has been liquidated from the pool, resulting in a significant realized loss of $45.5 million (for a loss severity of 78%). The loss has caused a decline in credit support for several of the P&I classes as compared to securitization.
Four loans, constituting 40% of the pool, have transferred to special servicing since June 2020. The largest specially serviced loan is the Westfield Countryside Loan ($96.0 million -- 16.5% of the pool), which represents a pari-passu portion of a $148.1 million mortgage loan. The loan is secured by a 465,000 square foot (SF) component of an approximately 1.26 million square foot (SF) super-regional mall located in Clearwater, Florida approximately 20 miles west of Tampa. The mall is anchored by Dillard's, Macy's and JC Penney, all of which are non-collateral. Sears (non-collateral) initially downsized its location in 2014 and closed the remainder of its space in 2018. The former Sears space was partially backfilled by a Whole Food's and Nordstrom Rack. The largest collateral tenant includes a 12-screen Cobb Theaters (lease expiration in December 2026), which re-opened in October 2020 after being closed due to the coronavirus pandemic. Cobb Theaters' parent company CMX Cinemas field for chapter 11 bankruptcy in April 2020. The loan transferred to special servicing in June 2020 due to imminent default and the loan is past due for debt service payments since May 2020. As of the September 2020 rent roll, inline occupancy was 88%, the same as in March 2020. The property's 2019 NOI improved slightly year over year however, it was 12% below securitization levels due to lower rental reviews. The loan sponsor is Westfield and O'Connor Capital Partners. The loan has amortized 4.4% since securitization, however, the special servicer indicated, Westfield does not plan to support the asset going forward and is cooperating in a friendly foreclosure process. Furthermore, the special servicer commentary indicates the likely disposition strategy is to market for sale in early 2021. As of the December 2020 remittance statement an appraisal reduction has not yet been realized, however, a recent appraisal valued the property at $91 million, which is 66% lower than the appraised value at securitization and 38% below the outstanding total mortgage loan. Due to the declining performance and the current retail environment, Moody's anticipates a significant loss on this loan.
The second largest loan is the Mall at Tuttle Crossing Loan ($86.4 million -- 15.0% of the pool), which represents a pari-passu portion of a $113.7 million loan. The loan is secured by a 385,000 square foot (SF) component of an approximately 1.13 million square foot (SF) super-regional mall located in Dublin, Ohio approximately 17 miles northwest of Columbus. The mall is currently anchored by JC Penney, Scene 75 and Macy's (all three of which are non-collateral). Scene 75, an indoor entertainment center, backfilled the former Macy's Home Store (20% of total mall NRA) that closed in 2017. The mall currently has one non-collateral vacant anchor space, a former Sears (149,000 SF), that vacated in early 2019. The collateral portion was 65% leased as of August 2020, compared to 76% leased as of June 2019 and 88% in December 2015. The mall has suffered from declining in-line occupancy which dropped to 60% in August 2020, compared to 71% in June 2019 and 82% in December 2017. Due to declining revenues, the property's annual NOI had declined significantly in both 2019 and 2018. The 2019 NOI was nearly 26% lower than underwritten levels. The loan sponsor, Simon Property Group, has classified this mall under their "Other Properties" and the loan transferred to special servicing in July 2020 for imminent monetary payment default. Special servicer commentary indicated legal counsel has been engaged and enforcement options are being evaluated. The loan is paid through its July 2020 payment date, has amortized almost 9% since securitization and matures in May 2023. As of the December 2020 remittance statement an appraisal reduction has not yet been realized, however, a recent appraisal valued the property at $80 million, which is 67% lower than the appraised value at securitization and nearly 30% below the outstanding total mortgage loan. Due to the declining performance and current market environment, Moody's anticipates a significant loss on this loan.
The third largest specially serviced loan is the Marriott Chicago River North Hotel ($45.8 million -- 7.9% of the pool) which is secured by a full-service hotel property in downtown Chicago, IL. The Hotel is dual flagged under Marriott's Residence Inn and Springhill Suites brands and operates subject to Franchise agreements that are scheduled to expire in 2033. The property's 2019 NOI declined nearly 20% year over year as a result of lower room revenue and an increase operating expenses, particularly advertising & marketing. The loan transferred to special servicing in July 2020 due to payment default and is past due for debt service payments since May 2020. As of September 2020, trailing 12-month occupancy, ADR and RevPAR were 42.2%, $155.43 and $65.53, respectively, compared to 79.7%, $187.34 and $149.31 a year prior. The loan has amortized 16.8% since securitization, however, the loan was experiencing declining performance for year-end 2019 and the coronavirus pandemic has caused significant stress on its operations. The borrower has proposed an initial modification and the special servicer indicated they are dual tracking ongoing negotiations with foreclosure proceedings. As of the December 2020 remittance statement an appraisal reduction has not yet been realized for this transaction.
The remaining specially serviced loan is a lodging facility, located in Katy, Texas and representing less than 0.5% of the pool. Moody's estimates and aggregate $111.0 million loss for the specially serviced loans (48% expected loss on average).
As of the December 2020 remittance statement cumulative interest shortfalls were $605,078 million and only impacted the up to Cl. H. However, Moody's anticipates interest shortfalls will increase due to updated appraisal values and/or the execution of loan modifications on the specially serviced loans. Interest shortfalls are caused by special servicing fees, including workout and liquidation fees, appraisal entitlement reductions (ASERs), loan modifications and extraordinary trust expenses.
The credit risk of loans is determined primarily by two factors: 1) Moody's assessment of the probability of default, which is largely driven by each loan's DSCR, and 2) Moody's assessment of the severity of loss upon a default, which is largely driven by each loan's loan-to-value ratio, referred to as the Moody's LTV or MLTV. As described in the CMBS methodology used to rate this transaction, we make various adjustments to the MLTV. We adjust the MLTV for each loan using a value that reflects capitalization (cap) rates that are between our sustainable cap rates and market cap rates. We also use an adjusted loan balance that reflects each loan's amortization profile. The MLTV reported in this publication reflects the MLTV before the adjustments described in the methodology.
Moody's received full year 2019 operating results for 96% of the pool, and full or partial year 2020 operating results for 70% of the pool (excluding specially serviced and defeased loans). Moody's weighted average conduit LTV is 101%, compared to 111% at Moody's last review. Moody's conduit component excludes loans with structured credit assessments, defeased and CTL loans, and specially serviced and troubled loans. Moody's net cash flow (NCF) reflects a weighted average haircut of 27% to the most recently available net operating income (NOI). Moody's value reflects a weighted average capitalization rate of 10.1%.
Moody's actual and stressed conduit DSCRs are 1.45X and 1.13X, respectively, compared to 1.40X and 1.04X at the last review. Moody's actual DSCR is based on Moody's NCF and the loan's actual debt service. Moody's stressed DSCR is based on Moody's NCF and a 9.25% stress rate the agency applied to the loan balance.
The top three conduit loans represent 20% of the pool balance. The largest loan is the Southdale Center Loan ($49.0 million -- 8.5% of the pool), which represents a pari-passu interest in a $138.1 million mortgage loan. The loan is secured by a 635,000 SF component of a 1.23 million SF super-regional mall located in Edina, MN., approximately 9 miles south of Minneapolis. While the property is located only six miles away from the Mall of America, the property serves local consumers, while the Mall of America is considered to be a tourist shopping destination. The mall is currently anchored by a Macy's (non-collateral) and a 12-screen American Multi-Cinema movie theater. The property has experienced multiple big box closures including Herberger's (143,608 SF) in August 2018, and JC Penney (non-collateral) and Gordmans (44,087 SF) in 2017. The total mall was 54% leased as of June 2020 and the in-line occupancy was 73%. The property is owned and managed by Simon Property Group. The former JC Penney space was backfilled by a 200,000 SF Lifetime Fitness & Lifetime Work, which opened in December 2019 along with two new restaurants. The property's historical NOI improved significantly through 2017, however, due to declining revenues, the property's NOI declined annually in both 2018 and 2019. As of March 2020, the borrower stated they are still exploring options regarding the former Herberger's and Gordmans' spaces. The loan has amortized 11% since securitization and remains current on debt service. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 131% and 0.85X, respectively, compared to 122% and 0.86X at Moody's last review.
The second largest loan is the Bridgewater Campus Loan ($39.5 million -- 6.8% of the pool), which is secured by eight Class B mixed-use buildings, located in Bridgewater, New Jersey, approximately 41 miles southwest of New York City. The campus layout consists of 446,649 square feet (SF) on site of 82.8 acres of land. The buildings are leased to three tenants, all of which have been at the property since securitization and 79% of the NRA has lease expiration in 2023 or later. As of September 2020, the property was 87% leased, compared to 100% in December 2019. As a result of the lower occupancy, the June 2020 NOI DSCR declined to 1.96X from 2.06X at year-end 2019. The loan has amortized 9.2% since securitization. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 99% and 1.01X, respectively, compared to 90% and 1.12X at the last review.
The third largest loan is the Beverly Garland Hotel Loan ($26.4 million -- 4.6% of the pool), which is secured by a 255-room, full hospitality boutique hotel, located in North Hollywood, California. The property was built in 1971 and renovated in 2012. The hotel includes two guestroom buildings, meeting and event space and a single-story grand ballroom building. Through year-end 2019 the property's performance improved significantly since securitization as a result of increases in both room and F&B revenue. While the property's performance has been impacted by the coronavirus pandemic, the loan amortized 11.8% since securitization and remains current as of the December 2020 remittance statement. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 96% and 1.24X, respectively.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.
The analysis includes an assessment of collateral characteristics and performance to determine the expected collateral loss or a range of expected collateral losses or cash flows to the rated instruments. As a second step, Moody's estimates expected collateral losses or cash flows using a quantitative tool that takes into account credit enhancement, loss allocation and other structural features, to derive the expected loss for each rated instrument.
Moody's did not use any stress scenario simulations in its analysis.
For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website www.moodys.com.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.
Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1243406.
At least one ESG consideration was material to the credit rating action(s) announced and described above.
The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.
The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the UK and is endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Limited, One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5FA under the law applicable to credit rating agencies in the UK. Further information on the UK endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Suzanna Sava Vice President - Senior Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody's Investors Service, Inc. 250 Greenwich Street New York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376 Client Service: 1 212 553 1653 Matthew Halpern VP - Senior Credit Officer Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376 Client Service: 1 212 553 1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc. 250 Greenwich Street New York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376 Client Service: 1 212 553 1653
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