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Passive investing in an index fund is a good way to ensure your own returns roughly match the overall market. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. Investors in Mondelez International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDLZ) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 22%. That's disappointing when you consider the market returned 26%. Longer term shareholders haven't suffered as badly, since the stock is down a comparatively less painful 14% in three years. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 18% in the last 90 days.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
See our latest analysis for Mondelez International
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Unhappily, Mondelez International had to report a 16% decline in EPS over the last year. The share price decline of 22% is actually more than the EPS drop. This suggests the EPS fall has made some shareholders more nervous about the business.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
Dive deeper into Mondelez International's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Mondelez International's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Mondelez International, it has a TSR of -20% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Mondelez International had a tough year, with a total loss of 20% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 26%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 3% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Mondelez International better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Mondelez International that you should be aware of.