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Investors in Monadelphous Group Limited (ASX:MND) had a good week, as its shares rose 9.1% to close at AU$13.11 following the release of its full-year results. Monadelphous Group reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of AU$2.0b and statutory earnings per share of AU$0.63, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
See our latest analysis for Monadelphous Group
Following the latest results, Monadelphous Group's 14 analysts are now forecasting revenues of AU$2.20b in 2025. This would be a notable 9.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 16% to AU$0.74. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$2.19b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.74 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of AU$14.11, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Monadelphous Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$16.20 and the most bearish at AU$12.60 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Monadelphous Group is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Monadelphous Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 9.1% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.4% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.2% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Monadelphous Group to grow faster than the wider industry.